By Richard Weitz (10/18/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: The scenario for exercise Rubezh-2006 (“Frontier-2006”), which occurred between August 24 and 29, posited a major terrorist attack against a member government as well as opportunistic behavior by other countries. The three sides were the “reds” (CSTO members); the “blues” (armed terrorist formations seeking to establish a Central Asian caliphate); and the “browns” (countries seeking to exploit the situation to expand their regional influence). CSTO officials often describe NATO leaders as having such ambitions.

By Kevin Daniel Leahy (10/4/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND:Early this September, the pro-Moscow Chechen parliament submitted a bill to the Russian State Duma, entitled “On Special Conditions for Entrepreneurial Activity in the Territory of the Chechen Republic”. This document proposes that Chechnya be exempted from paying customs tariffs; that investors in the republic be exempt from tax; and, perhaps most importantly, that jurisdiction over natural resources should reside with the Chechen government. None of these proposals was in the least bit surprising.

By Stephen Blank (10/4/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND:Kazakhstan is flirting with the United States in anticipation of President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s September, 2006 visit to America and Washington is trying to develop gas pipelines from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, or alternatively from just Afghanistan to India. In other words, the connection between energy, foreign relations, and security is growing closer and the rivalry for influence among the great powers and Central Asia’s neighbors continues apace. In conjunction with these trends recent Russian, Iranian, and Uzbek proposals that the Shanghai Cooperation organization become or create within it an “energy club” take on a new meaning.