By Stephen Blank (5/17/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: The statements and intentions coming out of Washington do not herald the advance of a new Cold War, as some of the more hysterical comments coming out of Moscow indicated, but the could very well signify an end to strategic partnership. More precisely, they do signify Washington\'s realization, albeit rather late in the game, that geopolitical rivalry in the borderlands is for real and not as former State Department officials claimed, a “mug’s game.” Win-win solutions involving Moscow and Washington are unlikely to be broached by Washington, and it may more forthrightly acknowledge that a rivalry in these areas exists.

By Murad Batal al-Shishani (5/3/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND:This development calls to mind the policy of the Tsarist General Yermolov, who came to Chechnya and the North Caucasus following his war on Napoleon in the first decade of the nineteenth century. In 1817, he built the Grozny fortress, from “terror” in Russian, in order to “terrorize” Chechens, and cut and burnt down forests because they were hideouts for Chechen fighters. If that was a huge loss by that era’s terms, the environmental situation in Chechnya is catastrophic in modern times, given the qualities and quantities of weaponry used in the present Russian war.

By George Katcharava (5/3/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND:Twelve years after the beginning of the war in Abkhazia, the Georgian and Abkhazian leaderships began to discuss the restoration of the railway connection between Georgia and Russia through the territory of Abkhazia. This issue was first seriously raised during a meeting between Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2003. Notwithstanding these high-level discussions, no official document was signed at the summit, though the results of discussions were stated in the presidents’ declarations.