IS RUSSIA'S PRESSURE ON GEORGIA BACKFIRING IN CHECHNYA?
By Svante E. Cornell (10/9/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The conflict in Chechnya has been deadlocked for almost two years, with a low-intensity conflict going on between Russian Federal troops and Chechen irregular formations. As Russian and foreign journalists have reported in graphic detail, the Chechen civilian population presently bear the brunt of the war. The Russian military is bogged down in Chechnya, affecting its internal discipline and morale negatively in a way similar to what occurred during the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
KYRGYZSTAN IS DESPERATELY SEARCHING FOR OIL
By Rafis Abazov (10/9/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Oil was first discovered in Kyrgyzstan in the early 1900s and by 1913 the first oil-field in the Maili-Suu region was producing 3,000 tons of oil annually for industrial consumption. Oil extraction gradually increased and peaked in 1960 when a total of 464,000 tons were extracted. But in the 1970s and 1980s, Kyrgyzstan considerably reduced oil extraction, switching to imported petroleum despite the fact that the consumption of oil nearly tripled in the 1970s and nearly doubled in the 1980s.
THE RUSSIAN BOURBONS: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS AND PRESSURE ON GEORGIA
By Stephen Blank (10/9/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Throughout 2002, Russia has threatened to invade and even fence off a section of Georgia's Pankisi and Kodori Gorges because Chechen forces operate there with impunity. Admittedly, Georgia has clearly lost control of these regions and have had little stomach for cleansing them. However, Russian leaders claim that Georgian authorities actively cooperate with Chechen terrorist operations and duly invoke the UN resolutions on terrorism of September, 2001 and Article 51 of the UN charter to defend against "aggression".
LATEST EFFORTS TO SOLVE NAGORNO-KARABAKH DISPUTE FAILS, KILLING TALK OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION
By Fariz Ismailzade (10/9/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Throughout the duration of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Minsk group of the OSCE, created in 1992 and responsible for finding a solution to the 14-year old conflict, has been pressuring both sides to enter into economic cooperation. Perceiving the war as a conflict of economic interests between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as of many other countries, such as the U.S.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.