Azerbaijan's Defense Industry Reform
By Tamerlan Vahabov
May 7, 2019, the CACI Analyst
Azerbaijan’s centralized Ministry of Defense Industry (set up in 2005) has for now been dismantled and replaced by the Azersilah Corporation. For now, because the former ministry is “terra incognita” when it comes to its assets and liabilities. Depending on its indebtedness and liabilities, its corporate form may switch back to become a government agency. Yet regardless of its legal form, President Ilham Aliyev’s decree envisions corporatization, corporate management and sustainability of the defense industry product output. The twokey questions are how Azersilah will manage its relationship with newly emergent local companies in Azerbaijan’s defense industry market to attain financial stability, and how the new legal entity will contribute to a better alignment of its portfolio development with thearmy’s operational needs in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Central Asian Salafi-Jihadi and Al Qaeda: From Bayat to Global Jihad
By Uran Botobekov
May 2, 2019, the CACI Analyst
In January 2019, the Central Asian terrorist group Katibat Tawhid wal Jihad (KTJ) publicly renewed its Bayat (oath of allegiance) to Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s global chief. More than seven years after the killing of Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda continues to attract Central Asian Salafi groups. This trend has intensified since the start of the Syrian civil war, where several thousand radical Islamists from Central Asia went to wage Jihad. The conflict has allowed al Qaeda to claim Syria as its newest and most important safe haven for a global Jihad ideology. The ideological assimilation of the Central Asian groups with al Qaeda took place precisely in Syria.
Armenia's Gas Dispute with Russia
By Natalia Konarzewska
April 29, 2019, the CACI Analyst
In March 2019, two high-ranking Armenian officials revealed that Armenia and Russia have not yet reached an agreement on the price of natural gas. Negotiations on gas tariffs are ongoing and remain high on the bilateral agenda. In late December 2018, Gazprom announced that it will raise gas prices for Armenia in 2019. Subsequently, Armenia has sought to reduce the price for Russian supply, with little success. In a move to improve Armenia’s negotiating position vis-a-vis Russia, Yerevan started to explore the possibility of importing gas from Iran. The gas row comes amid heightened tensions in post-revolutionary Armenia’s relations with Russia. Moscow has traditionally used its gas deliveries as a lever in bilateral relations and now routinely expresses its distrust in Nikol Pashinyan’s government.
China's Military Base in Tajikistan: What Does it Mean?
By Stephen Blank
April 18, 2019, the CACI Analyst
The Washington Post recently reported that China has an operating military base in Tajikistan, confirming earlier accounts of this base and opening a window on China’s interests and strategic developments across Central Asia. However, China may have a second base situated in the Wakhan corridor of Afghanistan. Chinese forces have been present there since 2017, around the same time that the base in Tajikistan became functional. The newly discovered base, along with the base in Djibouti and the possible base in Afghanistan, reflects the pressures building from within the PRC and PLA to project military power beyond China’s borders, e.g. in the South China Sea.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.