Azerbaijan's Expanding Strategic Perspective
By Stephen Blank (the 03/05/2014 of the CACI Analyst)
Azerbaijan is playing a growing strategic role, as confirmed by the 2013 Azerbaijan-agreement to build the Trans-Anatolian gas Pipeline (TANAP) to the Turkish- Bulgarian border and from there connect to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) that goes through Greece to the Western Balkans and eventually to Italy. The TANAP-TAP program is the first and only genuine alternative to the Moscow-backed South Stream pipeline. In combination with the AGRI (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector), Azerbaijan now has two instruments by which to become seriously engaged in European gas trade, and moreover recently suggested transit of Iraqi gas through these pipelines.
Kyrgyzstan Increasingly Vulnerable to Militant Islamism
By Jacob Zenn (the 05305/2014 of the CACI Analyst)
In 2014, U.S. troops are withdrawing from Afghanistan, despite that the Taliban and allied Central Asian Islamist militant groups, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), remain strong in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Complicating the security landscape in Eurasia, since 2011 Syria has become a front where hundreds of Central Asian Islamist militants are fighting. If Central Asians in Syria and Afghanistan carry out their threats to launch attacks against the secular countries of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan may emerge as a safe haven, if not also a target, for attacks.
Assessing Kazakhstan's Revised National Development Strategy
By Richard Weitz (the 03/05/2014 of the CACI Analyst)
In his annual State of the Nation address on January 17, President Nursultan Nazarbayev reaffirmed the vision of stable economic development found in the Kazakhstan-2050 national development strategy, while adding important details and refinements. He and the Foreign Ministry have since clarified the international dimensions of the strategy. Nazarbayev and other experts acknowledge the economic and other challenges in transforming Kazakhstan into one of the world’s 30 most developed countries, but can point to Kazakhstan’s exceptional past performance as an indicator of its future potential.
The Sochi Olympic Games and the Rise of Cossacks in the North Caucasus
By Tomáš Baranec (the 19/02/2014 of the CACI Analyst)
On December 5, 2013, Patriarch Kirill publicly supported the plans of Stavropol governor Valery Zerenkov to resettle the Semirechensk Cossacks from Kyrgyzstan to the North Caucasus. This was the most recent in a series of signs showing the steady rise of official support for the Cossacks in the region. Initially this development was frequently attributed to the need for increasing the security of the upcoming Olympic Games in Sochi, highlighted by the recent terrorist attacks in Pyatigorsk and Volgograd. However, the amount of support the Cossacks have started to receive suggests that they may play a much more important role in the Kremlin's strategy.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.