Kyrgyzstan's Decision To Renounce Manas Transit Center Favors Russia
by Erica Marat (06/26/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Kyrgyz parliament has voted to support President Almazbek Atambaev’s decision to renounce the contract for the U.S. transit center at Manas airport. The main reasons for the parliament’s vote were primarily a response to the Kremlin’s decision to write off a large chunk of Kyrgyzstan’s debt and to Moscow’s promise to construct hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan, as well as to Washington’s abrupt decision to dismiss criminal charges against Maksim Bakiev, son of former president Kurmanbek Bakiev. In the meantime, uncertainty lingers regarding the finality of the parliament’s decision and how the president will proceed with his plan to build an international transit hub at Manas once the U.S. leaves.
What Does Amirov's Arrest Imply For Dagestan?
by Emil Souleimanov (06/26/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On June 1, Makhachkala’s mayor Said Amirov was arrested and transported to Moscow by a military helicopter. The unexpected arrest of the controversial politician, referred to by many as Dagestan’s godfather, has raised questions both inside and outside this North Caucasian republic about the true motive behind a move that was certainly approved by the Kremlin authorities. Does Amirov’s arrest imply a significant change in Moscow’s strategy toward the region’s most volatile republic, or it is rather the outcome of a tactical move without far-reaching consequences for Dagestan’s politics and security?
Kyrgyzstan's Kumtor Mine Becomes Political Football
by John C. K. Daly (06/12/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Last month’s demonstrations outside Kyrgyzstan’s Kumtor gold mine have highlighted local and governmental dissatisfaction with the terms of its existing 2009 contract with Toronto-based Centerra Gold Inc. The Kyrgyz government has given the company until October 1 to offer revised terms, threatening to nationalize the company if it does not agree. Given the importance of the site to both Centerra Gold Inc. and the Kyrgyz government as a revenue source, a compromise would seem to be the eventual outcome. Whether or not that can be achieved will depend upon the protracted negotiations currently underway between Centerra Gold Inc. and Bishkek.
Attacks In Dagestan Suggest Inefficiency Of Administrative Changes
by Valeriy Dzutsev (06/12/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Hopes for improvement of the security situation in Dagestan gradually dissipate as attacks intensify in the republic. In spite of an anti-corruption campaign introduced by Dagestan’s new acting president, harsher government tactics appear to be matched by more exasperated attacks by the militants, while new anti-insurgency jamaats are formed to avenge the casualties of terrorist attacks. As an impressive administrative reshuffle ensues in the volatile republic, few substantive reforms are promised that could improve the situation in the long run, such as granting the Dagestani public more influence in the republic’s government.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.