By Elman Gafarov

July 29th, 2016, The CACI Analyst

2016 has become the year of most active peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since its cease-fire in 1994. The reason is the deadly April clashes between the warring sides and the “wake-up” call to all mediators that the conflict can get out of control and cause serious damage to the regional security and stability in South Caucasus. Russia is particularly seen to be worried about this trend. Therefore, the high-level talks are held in an effort to change the status-quo on the ground and end the occupation of Azerbaijani territories. The positive trend can be nevertheless be derailed due to social and political unrest in Yerevan.

By Eduard Abrahamyan

April 27th, 2016, The CACI Analyst

The recent unprecedented escalation around Nagorno-Karabakh highlighted deep systemic shortcomings in existing international mediation initiatives. The OSCE Minsk Group, dedicated to settling the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, has become largely irrelevant in the new operational situation. The intense fighting erupted on April 2 and lasted for four days until a Russia-brokered ceasefire between the adversaries was mutually agreed upon on April 5. The fighting put an end to the 22-year-old ceasefire regime, and the security environment of the South Caucasus. The escalation was clearly a consequence of a shift in the military balance of power, consistently fueled by Russia’s distribution of advanced offensive arms to Azerbaijan and the evident impracticability of the Minsk Group.