Published in Analytical Articles

By Pulat Shozimov (10/5/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: After the changes in Kyrgyzstan, at least a will to create modern democratic institutions can be observed. On the other hand, officials in Uzbekistan categorically assess that only the radical Islamic or semi-criminal forces can come to power if the existing Uzbek regime would collapse. Uzbekistan’s government has its reasons and rationale for this conclusion, but the suppression of the opposition and limiting the space for the expression of the will of the people could lead to dangerous consequences.
Published in Analytical Articles

By Lasha Tchantouridze (9/21/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Georgia’s foreign debt has increased to more than US$1,700 million. At the same time, Georgia\'s trade deficit in the first six months of 2005 was more than US$500 million. The country is not making hard currency while its debt to foreign creditors is growing.
Published in Analytical Articles

By Kunduz Jenkins (9/21/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Recently, ex-president Askar Akaev and his supporters have given a number of interviews and statements in the mass media and in public appearances, arguing that the March Revolution regressed the country with an accompanying huge rollback in its development. They also claim that the country achieved impressive results in implementing democratic and economic reforms under the rule of the former president. Yet actual facts demonstrate the opposite.
Published in Analytical Articles

By Stephen Blank (9/21/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Although these were ostensibly anti-terrorist exercises, Chinese Chief of Staff Liang Guanglie stated that they were directed against terrorism, separatism, and extremism. While the operations conducted here clearly represent the kinds of operations China might conduct against Taiwan which it regards as a separatist province, China also regards the threat posed by Muslim insurgents in Xinjiang as separatism and extremism based on religion and quite clearly regards those who conduct these ”separatist” operations as terrorists. Nevertheless these exercises’ scale and scope suggest a large-scale conventional operation rather than an anti-terrorist mission.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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