By Stephen Blank (8/24/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: The bombings in the London subway on July 7 and the ensuing foiled attempts at new bombings on July 21 focused global attention on the terrorist threat in Great Britain. But we should not ignore their lessons and implicit warning for the governments of Central Asia that do not command anywhere near the police experience and resources for adequate surveillance and monitoring, let alone suppression, of organized terrorist threats. For example, we can see from British reactions an increase in police monitoring and surveillance as well as heightened restrictions on the public practice of Islam in Great Britain.

By Alman Mir Ismail (8/24/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: President Ilham Aliyev was elected to the Presidency on October 15, 2003, on the expectation that he would conduct cadre changes and bring new, young faces into the government. Being young himself, President Aliyev was said to be wanting to give more power to the team of young, Western-educated and reform-minded specialists. This even caused rumors in the local media that President Aliyev was at odds with the “old guard”, the team that once supported and served as the power base for his father, President Heydar Aliyev.

By Ainura Cholponkulova (8/24/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: The presidential elections of July 10 ended the controversy over the legitimacy of the presidential power since the March Revolution that ousted former President Askar Akayev. The southerner and acting prime minister Kurmanbek Bakiev won the presidential race in an election competing with six candidates. According to civil society activists’ polls, 88% of citizens voted against the ousted former regime and for stability in the country.