BACKGROUND: Despite the international support that the proposed constitutional amendments enjoy, a group of 20 parties that make up the opposition are advocating a ‘No’ vote in the referendum, while others call for a public boycott of the referendum. Although the opposition’s efforts undertaken in this direction have failed on several occasions in the past, the upcoming November 27 constitutional referendum in Armenia constitutes a good opportunity to challenge the legitimacy of the government and of the President. The main constitutional amendments that are being contested by the Armenian political opposition are those of article 56 (granting of legal immunity to the President after the expiration of the term), article 80 (the power of the President to change Armenia’s borders with the approval of Parliament) and several other, including one that rules out a direct election for the mayor of Yerevan but instead has the mayor of Yerevan elected by a vote among elected officials in the city government. Other arguments made by the opposition concern the alleged illegitimacy of the president and the government holding a constitutional referendum; and unsubstantiated accusations of the presidential administration’s involvement in the terrorist act of October 27, 1999, when Prime Minister Vazgen Sargisyan, Speaker of Parliament Karen Demirchyan, and several Members of Parliament were killed by five assassins in full parliamentary session. The opposition also argues that the nature of constitutional amendments is ‘cosmetic’, and falls short of real reforms. Meanwhile the government is actively engaged in building a coalition of political parties and NGOs who will engage in a campaign to present the advantages of the constitutional amendments and encourage voters to vote ‘Yes’ to the amendments. Currently the number of pro-referendum organizations outnumbers those who are against, and the number is likely to grow as the full scale of administrative resources begins to pour into the campaign for attaining a positive outcome in the referendum.

IMPLICATIONS: The current Armenian constitution was passed in a referendum in 1995, known to have been mired with large voter irregularities, fraud and other electoral violations. Since then, many factors shaping the political life in Armenia have changed and new realities emerged that will help the constitutional referendum to succeed, in spite of the actions of the opposition. Specifically, in the last five years, Armenia was able to preserve its double digit economic growth, reduce the poverty rate in the country and successfully develop its traditionally competitive and very profitable industries such as agriculture, mining, information technologies, and tourism. In a recent report to the Armenian government on the state of the country’s economy, the World Bank has characterizes the economic achievements of Armenia in the last several years as the “growl of Caucasian tiger”. In 2005 alone, more than 300,000 tourists visited Armenia, while the booming IT field in the country has begun to experience a shortage of qualified computer specialists. Additionally, as more Armenians from Diaspora begin to show their interest in buying land and property in Armenia, the real estate market in Yerevan and nearby towns has begun to experience a steep rise in prices for newly built residential units and spurred a booming construction industry in the country. Moreover, continuous aid and development assistance provided by such international donors as the IMF, EBRD and World Bank to the government and to the private sector has helped to maintain a low inflation rate in the country despite rapid economic growth. Meanwhile, due to the active involvement of USAID in various programs designed to alleviate the burden of poverty for thousands of families and foster the rapid growth of small and medium-size enterprises in the country, the economic prospects for Armenia have improved dramatically and begin to look more promising for the near future. Armenia’s federal budget envisioned for 2006 will exceed $1 billion for the first time, thanks to increased revenues generated from rising business taxes and increasing import of goods. As such, the government is planning to increase its spending on social programs and raise the salaries of thousands of government employees who under current conditions are known to be engaged in widespread corruption. The 2006 budget will also increase funding for the public health sector, which will enable thousands of citizens to take advantage of free emergency services at local hospitals and medical clinics. Additionally, the Armenian Parliament is engaged in active debate over the feasibility of including a special compensation package in the 2006 spending bill intended to reimburse portions of the deposits by Armenian depositors who lost their life savings in the midst of the breakup of the former Soviet Union. It is also not surprising that given the government’s rapid rapprochement with Euro-Atlantic structures such as the EU, NATO (via the Individual Partnership Action Plan) and continuous development of bilateral relations with the United States, there is little if no room for the opposition to maneuver in. Specifically, the recent visit of Armenian Minister of Defense Serge Sargsyan to the United States may undermine one of the main arguments used by western-minded oppositionists in Armenia who attempt to present themselves as more pro-western than the government. Sargsyan’s visit to the United States has further minimized if not extinguished any hopes for western support for yet another ‘orange revolution’ in the post-communist space, a long held pipe dream among opposition forces in Armenia. The meeting will more likely strengthen if not elevate the existing bilateral relationship, which has been already reinforced by deployments of Armenian troops in Kosovo and the most controversial one in Iraq.

CONCLUSIONS: It is self-evident that Armenia’s continuous rapprochement with Euro-Atlantic structures and the United States along with rapid economic growth, reduction in poverty, and a growing job market take away many arguments from the hands of the Armenian opposition that could have been used to sway the public opinion to reject the proposed constitutional amendments. The opposition in Armenia lacks coherent strategies in terms of either economic development or foreign policy, that could have formed a better alternative to the ones pursued by the current government. For the greatest number of Armenian citizens, the ongoing political disputes between the opposition and the government are seen as nothing but struggles between competing business interests. Moreover, the groups of parties that make up the opposition do not possess the necessary infrastructure required to engage in grassroots advocacy throughout the country. Furthermore, they do not seem to enjoy the necessary support of a critical mass of voters. Hence, they are unlikely to muster enough strength and public support to defeat the proposed set of constitutional amendments or to present a serious challenge to the government in the aftermath of a successful referendum.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Grigor Hakobyan is a freelance writer based in the U.S. East Coast.