LESSON FROM KYRGYZSTAN: IS THERE A SHORTCUT TO DEMOCRACY?
By Rafis Abazov (5/13/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On April 26, 2010, the constitutional working group published a draft constitution for the Kyrgyz Republic, and the head of the interim government announced that the new constitution would be finalized on May 19. These developments have deeply divided the public, local experts and politicians. One group welcomes the decision, stating that the new constitution is a step toward stabilizing the political situation in the country.
KADYROV’S CONTACTS WITH ISRAEL AND THE JIHADIST THREAT
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (5/13/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
A visible increase has taken place in contacts between members of the North Caucasian elite and Israel. Ramzan Kadyrov’s recent overtures to Israel, in which he acted as an independent ruler, rather than as a governor of the Russian Federation, should demonstrate that Moscow has little power over his actions. By closing its eyes to such activities on part of the North Caucasian elite, or even possibly encouraging them, the Kremlin wants to increase its contacts with Israel.
RESUMED DEADLOCK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AT THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE KARABAKH CEASE-FIRE
By Haroutiun Khachatrian (5/13/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The process of Turkish-Armenian normalization, which could potentially have brought improvements to the regional inter-state political climate in the South Caucasus and helped resolving the current deadlock, is suspended, having encountered serious domestic obstacles to ratification in Turkey. This seemingly puts an end to the international mediation efforts to defuse the explosive situation in the region. As a result, Armenia and Azerbaijan have toughened their positions on Nagorno-Karabakh, and the situation has become increasingly dangerous ahead of the 16th anniversary of the cease-fire in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
MEDVEDEV’S NEW KING-MAKERS IN THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (5/13/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since his inauguration as Russia’s president in May 2008, Dmitri Medvedev has pursued a distinctive cadre policy in respect of the Northern Caucasus. In a little under two years in office, Medvedev has replaced the leaders of three republics – Karachaevo-Cherkessia, Ingushetia, Dagestan – and has even appointed a new envoy-minister to oversee the region. Recent events have given rise to speculation about Medvedev’s intentions toward Chechnya’s current pro-Moscow political elite, led by Ramzan Kadyrov.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.