SINO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS REACH NEW HEIGHTS
By Ghulam Ali (12/23/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
No other country celebrated the sixtieth anniversary of the People’s Republic of China with such an alacrity as did Pakistan. For over a week, activities such as exhibitions, banquets, meetings and seminars were held, both in capital Islamabad and in provincial and military headquarters in which top ranking members of the political and military leadership participated. Although the Saudi Embassy in Islamabad also celebrated its seventy-ninth anniversary shortly afterwards — Saudi Arabia being a country with which Pakistan enjoys deep religious affinity — the attention paid to the Chinese anniversary was incomparable.
WILL AZERBAIJANI GAS EXPORTS TO CHINA SCUTTLE THE SOUTHERN CORRIDOR?
By Alexandros Petersen (12/9/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Azerbaijan’s ongoing dispute with Turkey about transit terms and revenues for natural gas heading to Europe across Anatolia, as well as uncertainties about the Nabucco pipeline project, have compelled highest-level officials at Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) to publically consider the option of exporting hydrocarbons eastward, potentially to China and other East Asian markets. However, as Baku would have to surmount significant hurdles to make that proposition a reality, it remains to be seen whether a reorientation of Azerbaijan’s energy posture is in the cards, or whether this is just rhetoric to spur the development of Western-oriented projects. That said, the prospect of increased Azerbaijani gas exports to Russia and Iran supplanting westward flows should not be ruled out.
EURASIAN IMPLICATIONS OF EU REFORMS
By Richard Weitz (12/9/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty this month has already started to affect the foreign policy machinery of the European Union (EU). Although the incumbents selected for the new positions of president of the European Council and EU foreign policy chief were perceived as weak, their positions could accrue more influence and authority after they assume office and begin to establish precedents through their actions. Even a marginal strengthening in the EU’s capacity for collective decision making could have important implications for the union’s foreign policies, including toward Eurasia.
THE CENTRAL ASIAN POWER GRID IN DANGER?
By Sébastien Peyrouse (12/9/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In October and November 2009, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan stated their desire to end their participation in the Central Asian Power System, the shared regional power grid of the Central Asian region. Long misused, this collective institution is more than ever a victim of the deteriorating relations between governments owing to the question of water management. However, without any regional structure of cooperation, the energy situation of the two most fragile states, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, risks becoming further complicated during winter, leaving them exposed to hard power rationing.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.