By Roman Muzalevsky (3/3/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The ongoing polemic between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over the latter’s decision to construct the Rogun hydropower station has intensified, threatening to escalate amidst regional environmental challenges, widespread poverty, border disputes, and lack of inter-state cooperation, especially on water management issues. This context creates a potentially explosive environment in Central Asia that has witnessed a number of ethnic and resource-related conflicts in the past, primarily in the Fergana Valley, requiring effective intra and extra-regional policy responses to avoid water wars that are to some extent already under way across the region.   

BACKGROUND: The regional water (mis)management in Central Asia resembles a vicious circle.

By Mamuka Tsereteli (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The recent developments in the Black Sea/Caspian region indicate a dramatic shift in the geopolitical environment of the region. The reduced strategic ties between regional actors; diminishing U.S.

By Richard Weitz (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The main topic of discussion at the January 28 London conference on Afghanistan was the renewed coalition support for the Afghan government’s reintegration and reconciliation initiatives. With varying degrees of enthusiasm, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other members of the international coalition endorsed Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s call for national reconciliation. Seeking to weaken the Taliban insurgents by dividing the group’s less committed members from its hard-core supporters makes tactical sense, but the initiatives entail serious risks that must be understood and reduced.