KYRGYZSTAN’S LOST DECADE
By Erica Marat (12/23/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
This year, Kyrgyzstan’s Freedom House democracy index will likely change from being “partly free” into “not free”, placing the country in the same category as its Central Asian neighbors. From being the most democratic state in the region a decade ago, Kyrgyzstan has turned into the regional state where dynastic leadership is most likely. This month alone Kyrgyzstan saw four violent attacks against journalists and political activists.
SINO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS REACH NEW HEIGHTS
By Ghulam Ali (12/23/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
No other country celebrated the sixtieth anniversary of the People’s Republic of China with such an alacrity as did Pakistan. For over a week, activities such as exhibitions, banquets, meetings and seminars were held, both in capital Islamabad and in provincial and military headquarters in which top ranking members of the political and military leadership participated. Although the Saudi Embassy in Islamabad also celebrated its seventy-ninth anniversary shortly afterwards — Saudi Arabia being a country with which Pakistan enjoys deep religious affinity — the attention paid to the Chinese anniversary was incomparable.
WILL AZERBAIJANI GAS EXPORTS TO CHINA SCUTTLE THE SOUTHERN CORRIDOR?
By Alexandros Petersen (12/9/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Azerbaijan’s ongoing dispute with Turkey about transit terms and revenues for natural gas heading to Europe across Anatolia, as well as uncertainties about the Nabucco pipeline project, have compelled highest-level officials at Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) to publically consider the option of exporting hydrocarbons eastward, potentially to China and other East Asian markets. However, as Baku would have to surmount significant hurdles to make that proposition a reality, it remains to be seen whether a reorientation of Azerbaijan’s energy posture is in the cards, or whether this is just rhetoric to spur the development of Western-oriented projects. That said, the prospect of increased Azerbaijani gas exports to Russia and Iran supplanting westward flows should not be ruled out.
EURASIAN IMPLICATIONS OF EU REFORMS
By Richard Weitz (12/9/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty this month has already started to affect the foreign policy machinery of the European Union (EU). Although the incumbents selected for the new positions of president of the European Council and EU foreign policy chief were perceived as weak, their positions could accrue more influence and authority after they assume office and begin to establish precedents through their actions. Even a marginal strengthening in the EU’s capacity for collective decision making could have important implications for the union’s foreign policies, including toward Eurasia.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.