THE CENTRAL ASIAN POWER GRID IN DANGER?
By Sébastien Peyrouse (12/9/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In October and November 2009, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan stated their desire to end their participation in the Central Asian Power System, the shared regional power grid of the Central Asian region. Long misused, this collective institution is more than ever a victim of the deteriorating relations between governments owing to the question of water management. However, without any regional structure of cooperation, the energy situation of the two most fragile states, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, risks becoming further complicated during winter, leaving them exposed to hard power rationing.
IS A RETURN TO THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS ON THE CARDS FOR DMITRI KOZAK?
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (12/9/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
During his recent speech to Russia’s Federal Assembly, President Dmitri Medvedev, announced that an as-yet-unnamed official would be invested with ‘personal responsibility’ for the Northern Caucasus sometime in the near future. Naturally, there has been some speculation as to whom the president might choose to discharge this onerous duty. One possible candidate is Dmitri Kozak, a man with considerable experience of the region and its complexities.
KADYROV-ZAKAYEV TALKS SPARK CONCERNS IN MOSCOW
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (11/26/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov recently offered Akhmed Zakayev, usually considered a quite moderate representative of the North Caucasian insurgency, a safe return to Chechnya and a potential post in the Chechen administration. While Moscow does not consider Zakayev himself to be a dangerous figure, the offer strengthened Moscow’s concerns over Kadyrov’s increasing self-consciousness. Moreover, the issue has added to what Moscow perceives as a potentially harmful inspiration of Kadyrov’s example for the segments of Russian Muslims advocating increasing autonomy from the centre.
DESPITE GROWING SECURITY COOPERATION, RUSSIA IS LOSING GROUND IN TAJIKISTAN
By Alexander Sodiqov (11/26/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Tajikistani President Emomali Rahmon’s state visit to Moscow in October resolved none of the major divisive issues marring the relations between Moscow and Dushanbe. The Tajik leader failed to convince President Medvedev to pay Tajikistan a rent for Russia’s military base in Tajikistan, and to participate in the Rogun power station project. Despite this, security considerations have pushed Dushanbe and Moscow to agree to step up military cooperation.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.