RUSSIA AND THE GEORGIAN CRISIS: WHAT DOES MOSCOW WANT?
By Stephen Blank (6/11/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Russian-initiated crisis against Georgia exemplifies the paradigm of coercive diplomacy. Ironically occurring after earlier statements at the beginning of 2008 that indicated that Moscow wanted a kind of détente in its relations with Tbilisi, it has both stirred up the likelihood of a conflict with Georgia and shown a reversion of Russian diplomacy back to the kind of pretexts for the use of force that Hitler and Stalin habitually employed in their wars.
BACKGROUND: The two triggers for this crisis were first the West’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence in the face of Russian objections and threats that this would destabilize the situation in the Caucasus, and second, the intention to award Georgia and Ukraine membership Action Plans (MAPs) for NATO.
THE JEWISH AND MUSLIM QUESTIONS IN PUTIN’S RUSSIA
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (6/11/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Contrary to common opinion, Putin’s Russia has actually been surprisingly favorable in its policies toward Russia’s Jewish community. This is directly related to the fear of Islam prevalent in Russian elites and society. While the threat of violence in the North Caucasus dictate a low profile to Russian government policies there, its policies in other areas, such as Tatarstan, are signs of its general attitudes to Muslims.
DIM PROSPECTS FOR SARKISSIAN AFTER ARMENIA’S POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE
By Blanka Hancilova (3/5/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The violent suppression of the opposition rally on 1-2 March has opened up a gaping schism in the Armenian body politic. Following the deaths of at least several dozen protesters, the Kocharyan-Sarkissian duo is bound to lose some supporters, while some neutral voters may chose to join the opposition. The battle for power may be drawn out, and its conclusion is far from certain but, so far, it is evident that the foundations of the ruling regime have been profoundly shaken.
KYRGYZ KUMTOR MINE CONTROVERSY HEAT UP
By Nurshat Ababakirov (3/5/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On February 1, the Kyrgyz Finance Police accused Centerra Gold Inc. of tax evasion. It also claims that former Prime Minister Nikolai Tanaev “exceeded his power,†providing Centerra with privileges at the expense of national interests.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.