BACKGROUND: The fate of Jewish communities living abroad has been an historical prime concern for Israel. Israeli policy makers have recently found themselves in the position of encouraging Jews not to immigrate to Israel. The abundance of fraudulent papers circulating in the former Soviet Union, the previously unknown scourge of organized crime (now epidemic in Israel), and the added strain to the state’s already tightly-stretched social welfare system, have all contributed to Tel Aviv’s desire to see Diaspora communities remain abroad. Israeli policy makers are keenly aware that indigenous Jewish communities are an asset to the Jewish State in its foreign relations with Iran, Central Asia and the Caucasus. Whatever the outcome of the espionage trial of the 13 Iranian Jews in Shiraz, Tel Aviv will be forced to pay greater attention to the needs and fears of the Jews living in the countries of these regions.

Despite staunch Israeli denials and international outrage, most of the accused Jewish Iranians have confessed, and a defense attorney in the case has confirmed that some of the accused have had ties to Israeli intelligence since the Iran-Iraq war. Shortly after the detention of the 13 Iranian Jews on charges of spying for Israel in spring 1999, reports began to emerge detailing the role of Kazakhstan in mediating between Teheran and Tel Aviv. Israel and Kazakhstan had previously enjoyed a very close security relationship, on issues ranging from policy coordination on Iran to countering weapons proliferation.

In establishing relations with the republics of Central Asia, Israel was keen to curb the threat of Iranian influence from taking hold. Likewise, Teheran has often been at odds with the republics over their perceived coziness with the Jewish State. How the Revolutionary Court decides in this case will have great impact on the Israel’s security relationship with the Central Asian states and how they figure in Israel’s Iran policy. According to reports from both The Jerusalem Post and Foreign Report, it was the Kazakhstan ambassador to Israel who recommended that Rabbi Menahem Froman serve as a "possible conduit between Israel and Iran." Rabbi Froman along with Kazakhstan President Nazerbayev and a high-ranking Iranian delegation held "high-level secret talks in Almaty on the fate of the 13 Iranian Jews arrested for espionage."

IMPLICATIONS: If the court sentences the Jewish defendants to death, relations between Teheran and the Central Asian republics are certain to suffer. On the other hand, there is also potential for the relations between Iran and the republics to improve. The Central Asian republics have recently been reevaluating their relationships with Iran, however a capital conviction for any of the 13 defendants would certainly render the likelihood of ties with Teheran nearly impossible. None of the republics would swap their extremely beneficial ties to Israel by defending Iran from the international condemnation that is sure to follow any executions.

If the alleged spies are executed, it will most likely drive the republics closer to Tel Aviv, and cement existing security arrangements. The republics will rise in importance for Israeli security planners in order to contain and isolate Iran, and Tel Aviv will devote more resources to these efforts. Conversely, in the event that the 13 Jews receive a lesser, more symbolic sentence, Teheran and Tel Aviv may be provided with a unique opportunity for further dialogue. Iran and Israel have much at stake, in addition to the well know concerns of weapons proliferation and terrorism. Reports in the Israeli press detail not only the Iranian desire to recoup the approximately $1 billion owed to it by Tel Aviv for oil purchased during Shah’s reign, but also alleged Israeli threats to reveal the extent of covert talks with senior Iranian government officials.

Both Iran and Israel have an interest and a need for a dialogue. It is assured that Kazakhstan, having provided prior good offices, will again be presented with the opportunity to bring the parties together. The initiative shown by Almaty to bring the two parties together demonstrated the viability of Israel’s investment in its relationship with the Central Asia and Kazakhstan in particular. In 1996, for example, Uzbekistan had threatened to quit the Economic Cooperation Organization, seen by many as a vehicle of Iranian influence. Iran’s continued criticism of Israel prompted Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to support Uzbekistan’s move.

CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of the verdict, the "Israeli Spies" case has proven the importance of the Central Asian republics to the State of Israel, especially in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, all key in Israel’s strategy to isolate Iran, can be counted upon to continue support for Tel Aviv. In a best-case scenario, as the republics develop relations with Teheran, they will be able to advance the perceived interests of Israel. In a worse case scenario, Central Asia will be the site of increased Israeli attention and activity, an act that will both reward the republics and punish Iran.

In either case, the resources and effort Tel Aviv has devoted to cultivating secure relationships with the republics has proven to be quite useful and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. Israel can also be assured that Jewish communities in Central Asia and the Caucasus will be well looked after by their respective governments. The 25,000-strong Persian speaking Jewish community in Iran will prove to be a great asset when the time comes for movement on relations between Teheran and Tel Aviv. Curiously, this episode may provide an opportunity for Israel and Iran to reach some common ground.

AUTHOR BIO: Christopher Boucek currently conducts research and analysis on Central Asia and the Middle East, and was previously Director of Business Development at Arthur Houghton Associates, Inc. He wrote his graduate thesis on Israeli foreign policy in Central Asia at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.

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