BACKGROUND: One of the main goals of the Islamic rebels congregated on the Kyrgyz border is to facilitate drug trafficking from Afghanistan to Europe. Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has turned into a hotbed of international terrorism and a major source of the illegal narcotics trade. Today, Afghanistan has become a homeland for training terrorists and military mercenaries. According to recent data, Afghanistan produces almost 75% of the world's opium supply. Many impoverished Afghans are forced to take part in the growing, harvesting and transportation of narcotics. The narcotics business has become not only a means for survival, but also the foundation of Afghanistan's economy.

Kyrgyzstan officials estimate that about 2,000 Islamic militants are currently gathered in northwestern Tajikistan and are awaiting orders to cross the Kyrgyzstan border. Many of the rebels recently fled from Chechnya in order to escape Russian reprisals, and therefore have little to risk. The amount of rebels may soon grow with new "fugitives" from Chechnya, mercenaries from Arabic states, and Islamic militants, who now are training in unmonitored camps in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the near future, their ranks could swell to 4-5,000 people, which would represent a real threat for the security and sovereignty of Kyrgyzstan, as well as the whole of Central Asia.  

Islamic militants appear be making preparations for a summer campaign in the unstable Tajik Jergetal region. Islamic Movement field commander Juma Namangani was implicated in the armed incursions into southern Kyrgyzstan as well as last year’s bomb attacks in Tashkent. Namangani has been hiding in Afghanistan under Taliban protection. Western journalists report that the infamous Namangani has recently arrived in the Tajik region of Gornyi-Badahkshan that is close to the location from where Namangani might launch an invasion.

IMPLICATIONS: The unstable situations in Tajikistan and Afghanistan have allowed narcotics traffickers to transport opium through the Gornyi-Badakhshan region to southern Kyrgyzstan. This route has turned into a transit corridor for narcotics to Central Asia, the NIS, Europe and the US. The northern Chui region of Kyrgyzstan has already become a key distributive point for international narcotics smugglers.  Narcotics trafficking is one of the main sources of financing for international terrorism and religious extremism in the region. Traffickers thrive on political and social instability to support their activities. They know that a lasting peace in Central Asia, including Afghanistan, would negatively impact their illicit business. 

These conditions have caused anxiety and uneasiness in the region and have led Central Asian leaders to search for cooperative solutions. Naturally, it is impossible for any country to solve the problems of terrorism and drug trafficking alone. Even the powerful United States and Russia have not found lasting solutions to the combined threats of terrorism and the drug trade. That is why a cooperative agreement on resisting terrorism signed by Central Asian leaders at a summit in Tashkent in April 2000 was a historic event. For the first time, the four independent Central Asian countries of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have declared a resolution to jointly fight against international terrorism and extremism by establishing a mechanism for providing mutual military assistance in case of emergency. This agreement in fact created a defense union, with all that this implies.

Under the terms of the agreement, any of the four signatories has the right to ask for special assistance from others, which is to be provided immediately. The absence of such an agreement last year, during last summer's Batken stand-off against Namangani’s forces, created political and logistical difficulties in providing Kyrgyzstan with military assistance. Officials from the ministries of internal affairs in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan now closely collaborate with one other and with international organizations in the struggle against the illegal drug trade. Furthermore, Central Asian leaders have realized that they must collaborate in order to overcome the threats posed by the instability in Afghanistan. 

CONCLUSIONS: Today, Central Asian states are experiencing a difficult and complex period in their development. The countries are confronted by new security threats at the same time that they are attempting to undertake painful economic and political reforms. Transitional periods in almost all countries are characterized by a sharp weakening of state structures, which in turn, reduce the potential of counteracting organized criminality. This social, political and economic instability has made it problematic to provide stability and security in the region. 

Confronted with a new international order and non-traditional threats to national security, the Central Asian states have not had time to develop either the legislative or experiential expertise to fight against them. Current problems such as the narcotics trade, international terrorism, religious extremism, national separatism and migration threaten all countries' security and stability. No state can face these menaces alone. Therefore, it is necessary to unite states on a regional and global level to prevent new threats to international peace.

AUTHOR BIO: Kunduz Sydygalieva is a Kyrgyz economist focusing on Kyrgyzstan's economy in transition and is a graduate of the Academy of Management in Bishkek. She is ending her IREX sponsored fellowship at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at The Johns Hopkins University-SAIS and is currently an intern with Kyrgyzstan's Mission to the United Nations in New York.

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