BACKGROUND: The United Tajik Opposition (UTO) began in the Spring of 1992 when different opposition groups and parties coalesced around the leadership of four political groups and a prominent individual, the country’s most influential religious figure, Akbar Turajonzoda. At that time, Turajonzoda was not a member of any political party, but he supported political and economic reforms and recognized the rights of Muslims to practice their faith openly, without hindrance. The UTO’s first success was achieved in May 1992 when UTO members were included into a coalition government with President Emoli Rakhmanov. However, this compromise led to the establishment of a very unstable transitional regime and sparked off the civil war. As a result of the war, all opposition parties were banned and were barred from participation in the 1994 presidential and 1995 parliamentary elections.

The signing of the General Agreement on Peace and National Accord between the government and the predominantly Islamic opposition in Moscow in summer 1997, signified the end of the civil war. The peace accord brought the United Tajik Opposition into the political mainstream by allotment them 30 percent of posts in different institutional structures including the government. It also gave the UTO a chance to take part in the first post-war presidential and parliamentary elections. A referendum in September 1999 legalized previously banned opposition parties. The February 27 elections to the Majlisi Namoyandagon (House of Representatives) were only the first step in the creation of a new bicameral parliament that will replace the current unicameral one. The election to the Majlisi Milli (National House) on March 23 and the inaugural joint session on March 27 have officially closed the peace process.

It was tremendously significant that for the first time since independence some seats were allocated to party lists by proportional representation. According to the results of elections by party lists, the UTO managed to receive only two seats of the twenty-two total seats. President Rakhmanov’s People’s Democratic Party received fifteen seats and the Communist Party gained five seats. Before the elections, the leader of the Islamic Revival Party (IRP), Said Abdullo Nuri, predicted his party would take more than 60 percent of the vote if the elections were free and fair. The elections were so, relatively, but the UTO parties received few votes.

IMPLICATIONS: The 1997 Peace accord and participation in the government set off factional confrontations within the Islamic Revival Party that undermined the unity of the United Tajik Opposition. The frictions became obvious especially within the leadership of the party. President Rakhmanov was particularly adept at dividing the opposition members in order to solidify his power. Rakhmanov appointed Akbar Turajonzoda as a Deputy Prime Minister and soon Turajonzoda frequently and openly supported most of the initiatives of the President Rahmanov. This obviously displeased the other main opposition figure, Said Abdullo Nuri, and others in the leadership. When the UTO considered boycotting the presidential referendum and parliamentary elections, Turajonzoda persuaded his colleagues against doing so in order to keep peace in the country. Soon Turajonzoda was expelled from the UTO.

Despite these controversies, Akbar Turajonzoda still remains an extremely influential figure. The UTO has definitely suffered from his absence and will do so in the future. One of the possible scenarios future is for him to become an independent candidate for president or represent a new party. The fact that he has strong political experience in leading the UTO to be sign and keep its part of the bargain in the 1997 General Agreement and that he currently holds the position of the Deputy Prime Minister, will make him an exceptionally strong candidate in the future.

The UTO has broken apart in the past year facilitating the victory of President Rakhmanov and his People’s Democratic Party. One of the partners of the Islamic Revival Party, the Democratic Party, recently dropped out of the UTO partnership for political purposes. The UTO then split into several factions leaving it very weak. The opposition parties no longer have a coherent program and are fragmented. The UTO’s major failure in the elections to the Majlisi Milli (Upper House) could lead to the dissolution of a united opposition in Tajikistan. As a result, the opposition parties are likely to operate separately in the future.

CONCLUSIONS: As it was anticipated, the President Rakhmanov’s People’s Democratic Party won a majority of seats in the new Lower House of the Parliament (Majlisi Namoyandagon). The PDP was successful in the elections to the Upper House and this will give President Rakhmanov almost full control over the parliament for the whole term of presidency without a major challenge. Although, the main rival of the People’s Democratic Party, the Islamic Revival Party was defeated in the elections, it does not mean that the party is weak. Although the party had definitely shortcomings and weaknesses in its pre-election campaign, the political maturity it gained during the election contest will make this part a true contender in the future.

The Islamic Revival Party is the leading opposition party with several representatives occupying key government posts. For the moment, however, it seems that the party has lost interest in political battles and campaigns for the near future. The election of Sadullo Khairulloyev, the Islamic Revival Party’s deputy from the Gharm district which is a traditional IRP stronghold, to be Chairman of the new Lower House of the Parliament (Majlisi Namoyandagon), is a clear attempt to pacify the Islamic Revival Party. Should the party be co-opted with the same effectiveness that Turajonzoda was coopted into Rakhmanov’s government, the Islamic Revival Party could dissolve like the UTO.

AUTHOR BIO: Noor Umarov worked as a National Program Officer at UNDP-Tajikistan. Currently he is doing a Master’s Degree in the Theory and Practice of Human Rights at the University of Essex, United Kingdom. He holds Master’s Degree in International Policy Studies from Monterey Institute of International Studies, CA, USA.

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