BACKGROUND: On April 21, speaking at the ceremony devoted to 30th anniversary of Nakhchevanski Military Academy, President Aliyev suddenly felt heartache and collapsed in front of 2,000 attendees. The incident was broadcast live to millions of people in the country. Later, on May 4, Aliyev was flown to Turkey for a health check-up at the Gulhane military hospital. Aliyev has experienced health problems earlier. He underwent a by-pass surgery in Cleveland in 1999 and has been treated in Turkey and the U.S. on several occasions since. Aliyev\'s health has been a vital issue for Azerbaijan in the last ten years. Having come to power in 1993 at a time of internal chaos and civil unrest, President Aliyev managed to reverse the outbreak of civil war in the country and prevent Azerbaijan\'s territorial fragmentation by controlling secessionist movements among the Talysh in the south and Lezgins in the North. He also managed to achieve a cease-fire with Armenia, which improved regional stability and shifted the focus of the government to economic and social development. Dozens of oil and gas contracts were signed with the Western companies, paving the way to the flow of investments into the country and subsequent development of economy and infrastructure. Inflation was minimized, employment increased and GDP has been on the rise since 1995. But most of these achievements have been connected solely to the President’s strong rule. Democratic institutions have developed slowly during this period, creating doubt in their capability to make a smooth transition of power, should President Aliyev leave the political scene. Although President Aliyev crushed several violent revolts, internal groupings both within the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) and within the opposition remain at odds and pose a danger for domestic order. Although solid on the surface, YAP has been experiencing internal fighting for several years. This has been mainly a clan-based struggle between members of YAP from Nakhichevan, the President’s home region, and the Yeraz, Azeris who originated from Armenia. In recent years, fragmentation has been shifting along the lines of old-time conservatives and younger, modern forces who form the President\'s son Ilham Aliyev\'s team.

IMPLICATIONS: Aliyev’s recent health problems have already become Azerbaijan\'s problems. The illness of the sole decision-maker has put the political and economic development of the country on hold, leading to stagnation in many sectors of economy. There have been rumors of foreign companies pulling out their financial resources from the country. The ruling YAP seems to be in disorder. Leading members of the party contradicted each other on the status of the President\'s health and have praised government-opposition relations, thus seeming to try to please the opposition. Local analysts perceived this as a sign of possible willingness of some YAP members to switch sides. Meanwhile, opposition parties have stepped up their struggle for power. On May 4, thousands of members of the major opposition parties rallied in Baku to demand the resignation of the President. Although this rally was similar to earlier ones organized by the Opposition Coordination Center, an increasing activism on the part of opposition media and parties can be observed. A week earlier, over hundred intellectuals united to sent a letter to President Aliyev, requesting his resignation. As a result of these actions, there has been an increased pressure on opposition media and NGOs. On May 3, nearly 35 people attacked the office of the opposition daily Yeni Musavat, causing a damage worth $3,000. The political processes around the upcoming presidential elections and the adoption of the Unified Election Code, which will regulate these elections, are also under question. International Organizations and opposition parties are pushing for equal representation of all major parties in the election commissions, but authorities are not delivering the final answer. Last week, Yeni Musavat reported that authorities were considering concessions on this issue. The President\'s collapse also prompted many local analysts to speculate on the issue of succession. Local newspapers published different variants of post-Aliyev political order in the country, from Ilham Aliyev taking over the presidency to opposition parties coming to power. The press has also noted the possibility of a non-confrontational scenario in the post-Aliyev period. This could be possible, should authorities decide to enter into some sort of a power-sharing deal with the opposition parties. On May 2, several newspapers reported an alleged offer to Ali Kerimli, leader of the opposition Popular Front Party, to take over the chairmanship of the parliament. Deputies from the Popular Front have been working together with Ilham Aliyev in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and improving working relations between Ilham Aliyev and the Popular Front Party can be discerned. Two months ago, when the Ministry of Justice cancelled the Popular Front’s registration but the decision was reversed, Ilham Aliyev was said to have backed up the Popular Front and put pressure to have the decision overturned. Of all the leading YAP officials, Ilham Aliyev seems to be the most flexible and liberal towards the opposition parties. Ali Kerimli himself, however, refuted the rumors. Although it is highly unlikely that this kind of a coalition be formed at present, given the ambitions of the opposition leaders, such cooperation would do much to prevent domestic unrest.

CONCLUSION: President Aliyev’s collapse has shocked the country and the international community, in spite of discussions of his health over many years. Many are now again pondering the issue of succession in the country and the subsequent political and economic stability in Azerbaijan and in the region. Yet, the possible consequences of the President leaving office remain as unpredictable as ever. Although it may be premature to foresee the President’s demise and speculate of the consequences of this event, some implications of the collapse are already emerging. The most palpable consequence has been an acceleration of latent political processes. Internal struggles within the ruling party have begun to intensify, raising the possibility of a split between forces presently united mainly by vested interests in staying in power. At the same time, opposition parties have jumpstarted their race for power, thus creating a real danger for increased political instability in the country. The last two weeks have highlighted the risks of relying on one person as the guarantor of stability both in Azerbaijan and in general. Two specific issues are presently worth watching: one is the role of foreign powers, especially Russia and Iran, who may attempt to influence these processes by supporting their own candidates; the other is whether the Karabakh issue will be an element in the power struggle, and whether this will increase regional tensions. AUTHOR BIO: Azer Mamedov is a freelance writer on Azerbaijani politics. He holds an M.A. degree in Political Science from the Australian National University. He is originally from Zaqatala, and presently based in Baku.