Wednesday, 21 September 2005

HISTORIC AFGHAN ELECTION TAKES PLACE

Published in Field Reports

By Muhammad Tahir (9/21/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

At the same day, the U.S. military said a roadside bomb killed an Afghan interpreter and injured two U.
At the same day, the U.S. military said a roadside bomb killed an Afghan interpreter and injured two U.S. soldiers in the central Ghazni Province during a security patrol for this weekend\'s elections.

Meanwhile, female candidate Hawa Alam Nuristani is in critical condition in a U.S. military hospital near Kabul after being shot on Wednesday while campaigning in the eastern province of Nuristan. Before she was injured by unknown attackers, she spoke about threats she had been receiving for a long time. So far, many of the 328 women candidates in Afghanistan\'s parliamentary elections have faced death threats from gunmen who do not want females to have any role in the country\'s political system.

68 seats in the 249-seat Wolesi Jirga, for which some 5,800 candidates are competing, are reserved for women. But observers still express concerns about issues like security, not only for Afghans but also for hundreds of monitors sent to observe the election. As Turkish observer Kamil Kotlu, part of the OSCE team, stated, “We are supposed to go to Kandahar but are simply afraid of doing so, I am personally hesitating to join the team which is heading there. It’s dangerous, no one can guarantee a safe return”.

The hard-line Taliban have claimed responsibility for recent killings. A spokesman for the Taliban, Abdul Latif Hakimi, warned 12.5 million eligible voters of further violence, despite pledging last month not to target polling stations. However, some experts including U.S.-based political analyst Dr. Saeed Abdullah Kazim, are optimistic about the outcome of the election: \"Currently the conditions for elections in Afghanistan are not favorable, but it does not mean we should not make a start. This beginning is like a school where pupils study and graduate after some time. We can\'t expect that the elections will bring a parliament that will really serve the people or that democracy will be achieved. We can\'t plant a tree in winter and expect to have apples the next day.”

In a speech to the Afghan people, President Hamid Karzai called the people “the best judges”, and urged them to use the power to vote to elect the best people who can serve the nation. But according to Human rights groups, many warlords who have been involve in massive human rights abuses in the past are also allowed to run in the elections. Following strong criticism, the Joint Election Management Body (JEMB) disqualified more than 50 candidates, which nevertheless failed to satisfy many critics. Aleem Siddique, spokesman for the JEMB Secretariat in Kabul, explained that \"the Electoral Complaints Commission relies on expert advice from a body called the Joint Secretariat for Disarmament and Reintegration. They are the expert body best placed to advise the Election Complaints Commission (ECC) on those candidates who have retained links to armed groups. That vetting process continues. And the ECC has a mandate to disqualify any candidates who have been found to have links to armed groups, right up to the certification of results.\" Still, many famous faces of the past are on the list of qualified candidates, like Uzbek Commander Abdul Rashid Dostum, Mujahid leader Abdul Rabb Rasoul Sayaf, and some Taliban officials like former Foreign Minister Maulvi Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil and famous Taliban fighter Mullah Abdul Salam Rakiti.

But some sources say even if these are disqualified, it will not change much in the interest of the country. More than 40 million ballot papers have been already distributed. It will be very difficult for people, of whom as much as 85% are illiterate, to take this into account. Any votes cast for disqualified candidates will be discounted, that large numbers of votes could just be wasted. What this means is that candidates who have received very few votes, or a very small percentage of the popular vote, may be headed for parliament rather than the popular choice.

The last arrangements have been made, as security forces and some 200,000 staff try to make this election possible. The International Community already provided some US$149 millions in assistance for the Afghan Government and the election body. The final result of the Parliamentary Elections is expected to be announced a month later, on October 22.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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