According to the UNDP’s report for 2005, the Aral Sea, once considered one of the world’s largest inland lakes, is now not only losing this position but is also turning into a disaster zone for surrounding regions, affecting Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and now Turkmenistan. The Sea has increasingly become a dead body of water, leaving behind a harmful layer of chemicals, pesticides and natural salts blown by the wind into noxious dust storms. This not only raises tremendous health risks, but also creates huge economic problems for the region. According to statistics published on the Aral Sea website, roughly 60% of the basin’s population has been affected in different ways: irrigated agriculture in the deltas suffer from a limited water supply because of greatly reduced river flows, which in turn reduces employment opportunities and forces people to migrate while the health of those left behind declines dramatically. Due to a lack of international and regional interest, little has so far been achieved by organizations struggling to cope with these problems.

Many experts find it hard to predict a bright future for the region, since countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan continue to increase the area of farmland irrigated by the Amu Darya River, the crucial source of water for the Aral Sea.

The ongoing Golden Century Lake project in the Karakum desert of Turkmenistan is raising more concerns, not only in terms of the loss of more Aral Sea water but also in terms of the environmental impact for a region already suffering.

According to the UNDP report, this US$9 billion Turkmen initiative, which was started in October 2000, began without even consulting regional powers. This depression covers 3,500 to 4,000 square kilometers and has a maximum depth of 70 to 100 meters. Once completed, the lake will contain some 132 to 150 cubic kilometers of water. The semi official news source Turkmenistan.ru, quoting Turkmen officials, stated in May 2005 that this scheme will guarantee water and security and will create some 4,000 square kilometers of farmland. But scientists fear that this large-scale project will wreck the already fragile ecosystem and the water will simply evaporate in the desert, creating another situation like that of the Aral Sea.

Besides the possible environmental impact there is also a possibility of conflict regarding upstream and downstream water rights to the Amu Darya. Uzbekistan possibly would be the first victim of the project, since water will be drained from the Amu Darya to maintain the level in the lake.

Due to economic problems in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, in the early days of their independence little progress was seen in coping with issues such as the Aral Sea and other environmental problems. In March 1993, however, regional heads of state established the Interstate Council for the Aral Sea basin, the ‘International Fund for Aral Sea salvation’ and the ‘Intergovernmental Sustainable Development Commission’. Initially, these institutions played an important role in working to save the Aral Sea and in coordinating other regional environmental and water initiatives. But neither the effort of NGOs nor intergovernmental moves seem sufficient to cope with the challenges of the day.

Afghanistan’s new long-term agriculture project called Kohi-Ghashang ‘Good Hill’ seems to be one of the most important challenges to the future of water resources in the region. If this project is realized, Afghanistan will increase its irrigated area of land from 500,000 hectares to more than 1.5 million hectares. This will mean current water usage in Afghanistan will increase from 1 billion cubic meters to up to 10 billion cubic meters from the Amu Darya which carries a total 11.6 billion cubic meter water. According to an international agreement signed in 1946 between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Kabul already has the right to withdraw 9 billion cubic meters of water. The 1,415-kilometer long Amu Darya has the highest water bearing capacity of the region, and it originates from Panj Darya in Afghanistan, around 12.5 % of the Aral Sea flows from Afghanistan. The Amu Darya continues along nearly the entire border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and later also forms the border between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Lack of cooperation and coordination on water management issues continues to create unprecedented potential risks for the future of the region.

The efforts to save the Aral Sea look even more difficult since Tajikistan started to build two hydropower stations. The running of these stations will rely on water from Amu Darya or from canals that feed into the river. According to the World Bank, Tajikistan is actively pursuing the completion of these two hydropower schemes initiated during the Soviet period to reduce the country’s energy dependence on Uzbekistan. A less contentious option, Sangtuda 1 & 2 involves two schemes [670 MW and 220 MW] at an increased cost of US$560 million. These are expected to start working in early 2009.

If a second project under development in Tajikistan – the Rogun Dam – is realized, it will spell disaster not only for the Aral Sea, but for the agricultural sector of the entire region as it gives full control of the Amu Darya to Tajikistan. Russian companies are involved in this US$2.5 billion project. This is a 3,600 MW storage scheme that could start producing electricity in 2014. If this dream comes true, Tajikistan will be able to sell its electricity to Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. This plant was begun in 1980s, but the project was stopped when the Tajik civil war began. Then a massive flood in 1993 destroyed most of what had already been built. Today, despite controversy and strong opposition from Uzbekistan, the Tajik government seems set to restart this project, as it will be an important source of income for this landlocked country. But the impact of such projects will be unprecedented. According to a 2004 World Bank report, the Aral Sea has been shrinking rapidly: between 1960 and 1990 it retreated to about half its size [from 66,900 to 36 500 square kilometers], and its volume dropped by two-thirds [from 1,090 to 310 cubic meters]. By the end of the 1990’s this Sea had reportedly lost 90% of its volume. The salt content in the water also increased 2-3 times. As a result of the lack of comprehensive and effective coordination, cooperation and water management strategies among regional countries, and the lack of International efforts and funding, the desiccation of the sea has had far-reaching consequences for the climate and biodiversity of the surrounding region. Desert winds transport sand and salt long distances, depositing millions of tons of [often polluted] salts on agricultural fields all over the basin area, and reportedly endangering the glaciers of faraway mountain ranges. The worsening ecology of the region makes living conditions in previously heavily populated areas inhospitable, forcing the active population to immigrate and increases the health risk to those left behind.