Wednesday, 05 April 2006

FORTHCOMING KYRGYZ PARLIAMENTARY BY- ELECTIONS BECOME UNPREDICTABLE

Published in Field Reports

By Nurshat Ababakirov (4/5/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The long determination of Rysbek Akmatbaev to get into the parliament, as he said, was to resume the work of his brother and Parliamentarian Tynychbek Akmatbaev, who was killed in a prison riot last year.

Having registered him on 7 February, the Central Election Commission annulled his right on the grounds that Rysbek Akmatbaev has not lived for five consecutive years in Kyrgyzstan, which, according to the law, prohibits a person from being a candidate, Moreover, a court case regarding Akmatbaev’s involvement in the murder of law-enforcement officer Chynybek Aliev, was still being reviewed at the time of registration. The court eventually acquitted him because of lack of evidence.

The long determination of Rysbek Akmatbaev to get into the parliament, as he said, was to resume the work of his brother and Parliamentarian Tynychbek Akmatbaev, who was killed in a prison riot last year.

Having registered him on 7 February, the Central Election Commission annulled his right on the grounds that Rysbek Akmatbaev has not lived for five consecutive years in Kyrgyzstan, which, according to the law, prohibits a person from being a candidate, Moreover, a court case regarding Akmatbaev’s involvement in the murder of law-enforcement officer Chynybek Aliev, was still being reviewed at the time of registration. The court eventually acquitted him because of lack of evidence.

Following the CEC decision, an estimated few huundred protesters, mostly coming from the Issykkol oblast, turned up in front of the government building to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Felix Kulov and the restoration of their candidate’s right to run for the parliamentary by-elections, which will be held on April 9. Rysbek Akmatbaev stated that he personally wanted the resignation of the Prime Minister, who he accuses of involvement in his brother’s death. Protesters, who threaten to spoil the upcoming elections, also blocked the main road connecting Bishkek and Cholpon-ata, the hometown of Rysbek Akmatbaev.

Humble people, especially from his home region, see Rysbek Akmatbaev as a “Robin Hood” because of his underground patronage., although he denies connections to the criminal world. Overall, he spent seven years in prison, being convicted twice for being engaged in extortions, racketeering and fighting. He is alleged to be one of the leaders of criminal groups in the north of Kyrgyzstan.

As a reaction to the protests, up to 1,500 law-enforcement forces were mobilized to maintain security in the streets surrounding government buildings. 400-500 heavily equipped soldiers from the National Guard encircled the White House. However, despite the apparent aggressiveness of the crowd, President Kurmanbek Bakiev managed to deal with the supporters of Rysbek Akmatbaev, saying that Rysbek should turn to the court, which would decide whether the CEC decision was right or wrong.

The leader of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, Edil Baysalov, who was also registered as a candidate in the same constituency as Akmatbaev, initiated the process of cancellation of Akmatbaev’s registration. Even though the decision of CEC was based on voting, where 9 members out 10 voted for the annulment of Akmatbaev’s rights to run for parliament and legal grounds, supporters of Akmatbaev perceived it as a decision based on political motives.

For some experts, the tandem, which was built between the President and Prime Minister before the presidential elections, is in question, because they practice different policies. In this case, the president came out to the protesters, while the prime minister categorically refused to have a dialogue with protesters that he called supporters of criminals. President Bakiev also warned the government of its failure to have a dialogue with the people, reminding them of last year’s revolution, where the former government also wanted to suppress meetings with force but instead was ousted from the country.

The situation marks Kyrgyzstan’ reputations with a black spot in the eyes of the international community. Many embassies already expressed their concern when Rysbek Akmatbaev’s supporters demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Felix Kulov for his alleged involvement in the murder of Chynybek Akmatbaev. Evgeniy Shmagin, Russia’s ambassador in Kyrgyzstan, said that the situation is ‘loosing its predictability’. The Ambassador of the U.S. in Kyrgyzstan, Mary Jovanovich, referred to the situation when criminals threaten the Prime Minister and want to be elected into parliament as a direct threat to the democracy.

Nevertheless, on March 3, the court ruled that Rysbek Akmatbaev had the right to run for parliament as a candidate. It is not clear why the court overturned the CEC’s decision. The CEC announced its intention to appeal to the court to prove the correctness of its decision, but it ran out of time since the registration of a candidate can only be rejected five days before the election.

The result of this upcoming election remains unclear, considering Edil Baysalov’s popularity among urban people while Rysbek Akmatbaev is highly supported by his co-villagers and other people from Issykkol oblast. On another note, it is also doubtful that the situation will stabilize, given that Akmatbaev’s representative, Ismail Kochkarov, stated in a press-conference that Akmatbaev’s live is in danger, underlining the recent assassination of three of his friends.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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