Wednesday, 28 June 2006

PUTIN-SAAKASHVILI MEETING: NOTHING RESOLVED

Published in Field Reports

By Kakha Jibladze (6/28/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The meeting did not start out promisingly. Originally scheduled for an 8 PM start, Saakashvili was left waiting for three hours. Once the two presidents finally met, there was a marked tension during the press conference, with both presidents interrupting each other and Saakshvili even ‘interpreting’ some of Putin’s odder statements concerning Abkhazia and Georgian territorial integrity for better Georgian consumption.
The meeting did not start out promisingly. Originally scheduled for an 8 PM start, Saakashvili was left waiting for three hours. Once the two presidents finally met, there was a marked tension during the press conference, with both presidents interrupting each other and Saakshvili even ‘interpreting’ some of Putin’s odder statements concerning Abkhazia and Georgian territorial integrity for better Georgian consumption. The Russian president used every opportunity to remind Georgians of their dependency on Russian capital – even going so far as to inflate the amount of remittances sent from Georgians working in Russia.

The immediate press coverage of the event was also less than favorable. While some Russian TV stations painted a general positive picture of the meeting as a good first step toward normal relations, others were far more negative and focused largely on the recently released figures for Georgian defense spending and the chances of the de-facto governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia gaining independence through a referendum.

Georgian press by and large concentrated on the tension between the two presidents and what possible outcomes can be expected regarding the Russian wine and mineral water embargo: while both presidents initially claimed the trade issue was not on the agenda, both discussed it during the press conference. Some positive signals did come out of the conversation: Putin reiterated that once Georgian wine meets Russian standards, trade can resume, but at the same time there was definite tension. When Saakashvili jokingly warned Putin that soon there might not be enough Georgian wine to export to Russia, Putin noted that, with Russian investors purchasing Georgian wineries, the exports would be high-quality Georgian wine under Russian management.

Some foreign observers took a negative view of the meeting in light of the upcoming G-8 summit; according to some the meeting was a victory for Putin. In one step, the Russian president attempted to usurp the G-7’s plans to criticize him for Russia’s aggressive policy against Georgia. By agreeing to meet with Saakashvili, he demonstrated he was open to dialogue and therefore is more protected against potential accusations.

Taking into account the low expectations for the meeting, however, afterwards members of the ruling party – and some members of the opposition – spoke of it as an example that relations can improve. According to Georgian parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze, an important aspect of the dialogue was the fact that Saakashvili clearly stated the goals of the administration: good relations with Russia but not at the expense of territorial integrity. She noted that the meeting was an ‘opportunity’ for Russia to play a positive role in determining a peaceful outcome to the frozen conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. During the press conference, Putin asserted that he had ‘never given an order’ to annex the contested territories and that Russia respects Georgia’s borders.

It is hardly surprising that one late night meeting did not produce a balm for months if not years of tension and accusations. Georgian-Russian relations are complex; it has taken time for them to sink to this low point and it will take time and considerable effort to repair and revitalize them. However, heated conversation and pointed verbal jabs notwithstanding, the meeting was a step in the right direction. The meeting, however, was a Georgian initiative; if Russia is equally serious about improving relations, now it is Moscow’s turn to offer an olive branch.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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