Wednesday, 12 July 2006

MUNICIPAL RE-ELECTION SHOWS WEAKENED POSITION OF PARTIES IN AZERBAIJAN

Published in Field Reports

By Fariz Ismailzade (7/12/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Attempts to hold re-elections ever since have been hindered by the important parliamentary elections in November 2005 followed by the parliamentary re-elections in May 2006. Only now can the Central Election Commission finally devote its energy and time to the conduct of these long-overdue municipal re-elections. In fact, the holding of these elections are the latest requirements by the Council of Europe to the Azerbaijani government and its delay could have damaged bilateral relations.
Attempts to hold re-elections ever since have been hindered by the important parliamentary elections in November 2005 followed by the parliamentary re-elections in May 2006. Only now can the Central Election Commission finally devote its energy and time to the conduct of these long-overdue municipal re-elections. In fact, the holding of these elections are the latest requirements by the Council of Europe to the Azerbaijani government and its delay could have damaged bilateral relations.

However, the political parties in the country showed mixed interest toward the upcoming elections. The major opposition Popular Front, Azerbaijan Democratic, Liberal and Citizenship and Development parties – all united in the Azadliq (Freedom) bloc – have decided to boycott the re-elections. They justify this with the absence of real decision-making power in the hands of municipalities, as well as the unchanged composition of the election commissions. Azadliq members demand the formation of new election commissions where they would get equal representation with the ruling party. Not only did the Azadliq bloc decide to boycott the re-elections, they have threatened to expel all members who decide to run on an independent ballot.

The Musavat party, another major opposition party which has left the Azadliq bloc, has similarly decided not to compete in the race, yet gave decision-making freedom to its members, promising not to punish those who decide to do so. At the moment, Musavat is going through internal turmoil, with elections to the chairmanship of its Supreme Council last weekend producing two bitter rival groupings inside the party’s leadership and resulting in mutual accusations and an atmosphere of a near split. Member of the Supreme Council Hikmet Hajizadeh stated this week that the actual struggle inside the party began long ago, after the failed hopes of Musavat to win the 2003 Presidential elections.

Experts, however, believe that the decision of the major opposition parties to boycott the municipal re-elections is motivated by their internal weaknesses and low chances to motivate public support behind their old-fashioned messages. Indeed, after their defeat in the Presidential elections of 2003 and the Parliamentary elections of 2005, the opposition parties are in a process of deep stagnation and internal conflict. This is noted not only by political experts but also by the party officials themselves. Many high ranking operatives of these parties have resigned, while the ordinary membership has lost considerable interest in the parties’ messages.

The changing political and economic situation in the country requires new, modern political slogans and issue-based activities. Promoting the same old messages from the late 1980s, and demanding regime change, does not win these opposition parties new supporters any longer. At the same time, the general public is exhausted by elections and it is expected that encouraging people to participate in these re-elections will be extremely hard.

The ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP), meanwhile, has started preparations to the re-elections by stating that the list of common party candidates would be developed and a campaign plan would be designed. It is noteworthy that insiders in the party talk about the lack of interest in these re-elections from the party leadership. The YAP leadership might fear a renewed internal rivalry over these vacant seats. Such rivalry has challenged the stability and sustainability of the party in the last several elections.

At the same time, holding these re-elections up to international standards will be another important test for the Azerbaijani Government. Albeit with less energy and attention, international organizations will be monitoring the conduct of these re-elections and the Azerbaijani Government will be pressured to improve its election record.

Central Election Commission officials have welcomed the desire of more than 1,200 persons to take signature sheets and register as candidates. Most of the registered so far are independent candidates. Small opposition parties such as Umid, Civil Solidarity, and the Party of Democratic Reforms, will also contest the re-elections and have already started to develop lists of candidates.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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