Wednesday, 12 July 2006

KYRGYZ BY-ELECTION FOR PARLIAMENT IN STALEMATE

Published in Field Reports

By Nurshat Ababakirov (7/12/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The first by-election was held on April 9, and was a result of the shift of Adahan Madumarov, current Secretary of State, from the parliament to the government. This opened up the seat for a by-election. Sanjar Kadyraliev and Mamat Orozbaev reached the second round held on April 23.
The first by-election was held on April 9, and was a result of the shift of Adahan Madumarov, current Secretary of State, from the parliament to the government. This opened up the seat for a by-election. Sanjar Kadyraliev and Mamat Orozbaev reached the second round held on April 23. After this, the Central Election Commission (CEC) issued three controversial decisions in one day: first, it acknowledged Orozbaev’s victory. Then, it decided to conduct rerun elections in four sub-districts because of ballot frauds, and it ended up recognizing Kadyraliev as the winner. Nevertheless, it again changed its decision after a review handed Orozbaev the victory with his 49.5% of votes. Along with many controversial decisions, a problem was that the difference was about 150 votes, which fueled Kadyraliev’s ambition to keep claiming his right to be a parliamentarian.

No sooner did Orozbaev take the oath and assume his position in parliament, than the court annulled the results in three sub-districts for fraudulent conduct of ballot casting, thus partially satisfying Kadyraliev’s appeal. On June 14, the Supreme Court delivered another decision: to conduct a re-run in only one sub-district, “Tuzbel”, the birth place of Orozbaev.

This took place on 25 June. According to law-enforcement agencies, the first skirmishes between the supporters of the two candidates occurred the day before the rerun election, when representatives of the candidates started their campaigns. In order to stop a further escalation of violence, the next day up to 200 policemen were brought in.

One of the first grounds for the violence was laid, the CEC commission on the spot said, when about 400 sportsmen-looking supporters of Kadyraliev started checking the passports of the electorate to let them vote or not. It also became known that old passports, which were registered in Jalpaktash village, the former name for Tuzbel, were torn into pieces. According to the CEC representatives, the ordinary people got outraged and some people on horsebacks appeared, but law enforcement managed to control the situation. “It was also Orozbaev’s prudence that prevented things from getting worse, convincing the people to let the supporters of Kadyraliev, who had been encircled, to leave the place.” Nevertheless, Kadyraliev, denying his initiation of these kinds of actions, instead accused his rival of bringing the young men there and causing a worsening of the situation. Dozens of people got wounded by gunshots, injured by sticks and metal bars, and several cars were damaged and burned. In general, the policemen had to separate the two groups over a dozen times by using tear gas and other means. Several policemen were injured as well.

About 200 people of Tuzbel village, which has about 800-900 eligible voters, managed to cast their votes by 12 o’clock, the time when it was no longer possible to control the election. It is thought that the dispute could have been managed in a way to resume the ballot, given the numbers of police officers present.

Orozbaev accuses higher forces in the bureaucracy for preventing him from taking the seat. “It is the second time I win the election as a candidate for the parliament, but somehow I am sidelined.” Previously, in 2005, he stood as a candidate against current Secretary of State Madumarov, but lost. That time as well, loud scandals were abundant in the constituency.

Judicial confusion also appeared after the failed by-election, obscuring further steps to settle the issue and to identify a winner. According to election regulations, rerun elections should take place within two weeks after the decision. If it passes the deadline, it is not conducted. The question, says the head of the CEC, Tuygunaly Abdraimov, is what to do next if the re-election started on time but it failed to finish.

Being aware of some sort of a stalemate in the case, many people, including the rivaling opponents and some members of the CEC, want to address the issue to the president, Kurmanbek Bakiev. Nevertheless, the latter is more or less silent about it. This is understandable, given his comments on problems in the previous elections: “everything should be dealt with on a legal basis, I am not a tsar with unlimited power”.

With this clash of supporters of rival opponents and uncertainty in legal terms, the failed re-run by-election came in handy to those who believed a parliamentary republic with a party list system is the best cure for troublesome clan and tribe-based elections.

A negative consequence of the case, as argued by Aziza Abdyrasulova, leader of Kylym Shamy human rights group, is that it reinforces a tendency toward the use of force as a means to solve problems. This tendency is more or less apparent since the March 2005 upheaval, where differing from the Georgian and Ukrainian elections, force was indeed used.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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