Wednesday, 04 October 2006

KYRGYZ CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS: WHICH SYSTEM IS BETTER?

Published in Field Reports

By Nurshat Ababakirov (10/4/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On September 28, the president in his general address to the public, “The national strategy of development and immediate tasks”, called for a constitution with the capacity to solve the issues of the “reconstruction” period, and discarded the necessity for an “ideal and abstract” one. The president, Kurmanbek Bakiev, underlined the feasibility of a strong executive branch, which he buttresses since the onset of his presidential tenure in August 2005.

In late June, the drafts were completed by a working group, financed by foreign organizations, and led by Azimbek Beknazarov, parliamentarian and a former prosecutor general.

On September 28, the president in his general address to the public, “The national strategy of development and immediate tasks”, called for a constitution with the capacity to solve the issues of the “reconstruction” period, and discarded the necessity for an “ideal and abstract” one. The president, Kurmanbek Bakiev, underlined the feasibility of a strong executive branch, which he buttresses since the onset of his presidential tenure in August 2005.

In late June, the drafts were completed by a working group, financed by foreign organizations, and led by Azimbek Beknazarov, parliamentarian and a former prosecutor general. It assumed the task of drafting a new constitution after the Constitutional Council proved ineffective. One of the aims of the working group is to bring back the constitution of 1993, which was later twisted in favor of former president, Askar Akaev, via four referendums. It also seeks to legitimize the “revolution’s achievements”.

The three drafts have few significant differences, aside from the form of government. In two cases – presidential and parliamentary-presidential forms – the position of Prime Minister is absent, and the president becomes both the head of the state and of the government. Nonetheless, the president’s administration remains, which, according to Alisher Mamasaliev, a member of the Constitutional Council, may duplicate the government’s work. In all drafts, the parliament consists of 75 members: 50 members are elected on the basis of party lists, and 25 on the basis of first-past-the-post constituencies. It excludes the conduct of referendum over two issues: pre-term dissolution of the parliament, and early resignation of president.

The drafts being prepared, parliamentarians must now come to a consensus, not only among themselves but also with the president. It is expected that the process will take approximately half a year, given procedural regulations. Nonetheless, it may turn out to be even longer, owing to the largely opposition-oriented parliament, which has vociferous members supporting a parliamentary form of government. The Speaker of Parliament, Marat Sultanov, anticipates that the whole process will be finished by the 2008.

Whether a new constitution should be adopted by referendum or by the parliament gives life to debates among politicians. “A referendum is inevitable”, says Turgunbek Turgunaliev, the author of one of drafts, member of the constitutional working group and leader of the Erkindik (Liberty) party, which has put enormous effort to dissolve the parliament, allegedly dominated by corrupt and incompetent parliamentarians. He believes politicians and public activists will fail to come to an agreement over the form of government. “A referendum must be pursued on one condition: people should be informed politically and judicially.”

Marat Sultanov, the Speaker of Parliament, who welcomes a parliamentarian state, believes that if parliament is to pass the constitution, it will weigh all the pros and cons of the drafts so that ordinary people will come to know it. If it is the people who pass the constitution, there is a possibility that they will miss the point, he argues. “They will eventually vote the way local akims (governors) tell them to.”

Given the poor quality of education among the still overwhelmingly rural population (about 60 percent), the possibility that the people’s choice can be manipulated can be an issue. Edil Baysalov, the leader of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, said that an appeal to the public through referendum is the method of authoritarian leaders like Askar Akaev, who used populist approaches to consolidate their power.

It appears that the only way to bring about a new constitution is through a consensus among government branches, which remains unfeasible. The president seeks to keep the current system, while some heavyweight parliamentarians push for a parliamentary system. There is also a widespread idea that the current constitution instead must be changed and amended. Prime Minister Felix Kulov, supporting a mixed form of government, stresses “continuity” with the present constitution. His main idea is the creation of a firm power structure that suggests a strong president and a strong parliament.

The president may come up with his own draft, providing for a super-presidential system, believes Azimbek Beknazarov. “This is why he protracted the constitutional reform process, first creating the Constitutional Council, and then the working group.” He stressed that the president did not give parliament the drafts for review, but for hearings in the committee on constitutional legislature, led by Ishak Masaliev.

Forty fledgling political parties have arisen on the political arena, currently pushing the total to 80 parties, since the March 2005 events, likely a result of the anticipation that Kyrgyzstan might become have parliamentary system. However, according to various researchers, more than 50 percent of the population still favors presidential system.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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