Wednesday, 21 February 2007

FELIX KULOV JOINS THE KYRGYZ OPPOSITION

Published in Field Reports

By Nurshat Ababakirov (2/21/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

At a long-awaited press conference on 14 February, Kulov spoke about his reasons for joining the opposition and why he does so when already out of power. First, Kulov claimed that by voting for Kurmanbek Bakiev in the presidential elections of 2005, the electorate voted for the tandem between Bakiev and himself. He underlined that his supporters played a significant role and, therefore, he still bears obligations before his voters on achieving his objectives.
At a long-awaited press conference on 14 February, Kulov spoke about his reasons for joining the opposition and why he does so when already out of power. First, Kulov claimed that by voting for Kurmanbek Bakiev in the presidential elections of 2005, the electorate voted for the tandem between Bakiev and himself. He underlined that his supporters played a significant role and, therefore, he still bears obligations before his voters on achieving his objectives. “It is not an agreement of two people,” he argued.

In his speech, he emphasized that governance has become increasingly defective, particularly in the corrupted energy and telecommunications sectors, and attempts to change it have had little success. On the other hand, Kulov justified his failure to bring reforms by saying that sometimes, he had to prioritize an atmosphere of domestic stability and the country’s image abroad before the option of direct confrontation with the “faulty” system, although at the expense of his own reputation among his supporters.

“Initially, I was against HIPC,” said Kulov. According to him, his position on it changed after the president’s statement that the foreign debt should be written off at any cost. He understood it as a guiding principle to free the state from the debt burden as well as to use it as a mechanism to fight corruption in the key economic industries, such as energy sector and mining. During his term as prime minister, he took “personal” responsibility for the HIPC initiative as the only alternative way to reduce the foreign debt, in spite of the public distrust and discontent. Nevertheless, he immediately recalled his signature on accepting HIPC’s first stages after he failed to regain his position.

In a nutshell, Kulov now sees himself not only within the opposition, but also, in a broader context, as an opponent of what all “decent” people are against – corruption. In his speech, he underscored that a narrow group of people is “seizing” private property as well as government property; a division on a regional basis is overtly observable on the level of the political elite, and media outlets are already under the control of the people close to one “family.”

Kulov revealed that his political activity will not be confined to his Ar-Namys party, but rather will try to “unite and lead the fragmented, but like-minded public and political forces.” His unifying block has become the United Front coalition. With the objective of “President Bakiev’s resignation and the holding of early elections” through “moral and political pressure”, the majority of the opposition members already joined the coalition. Yet Kulov warned that the government would discredit his supporters with various means.

Nevertheless, his clearly stated position has not been sufficient to earn the trust and support of some opposition members. As generally anticipated, an immediate unification is unlikely. Azimbek Beknazarov, the co-leader of the Asaba party, and Almaz Atambaev, the leader of Social Democratic party, do not want to join the new coalition, pointing to its radical goals, which may lead to the destabilization of the country and the use of unlawful means, in contrast to the goals of coalition For Reforms. “Our president will not leave easily,” argues Azimbek Beknazarov.

Atambaev blames Kulov for reversing the movement towards a parliamentary state by his resignation in December. He also wonders why Kulov tried to regain his position over and over, and if he would appear with the same position if he were approved to the premiership again. Nonetheless, such criticism gives an impression that Kulov, now being on the oppositional side, may become an unchallengeable rival for some opposition politicians intending to run for the presidency in the next elections.

Apparently, most of the opposition members understand that “past” squabbles should be forgotten for the sake of their unification and strength. The opposition still remembers the ‘diskette gate’ scandal that took place during the November rallies, in which Kulov emerged with the recorded voices of opposition leaders allegedly planning to stage a coup, which led to unpleasant conversations with National Security officers. Also, Kulov appeared increasingly supportive of the president’s position in the politically troubled Fall of 2006, which in its turn reinvigorated the president to maintain his rigid position.

Nonetheless, many still expect tangible steps and convincing actions by Kulov to gain public confidence and support. Having worked with President Bakiev shoulder to shoulder for two years, Kulov is believed to possess compromising facts about the current government, which already seems to be losing its legitimacy with Kulov on the side of the opposition.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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