Wednesday, 07 March 2007

GEORGIAN-NATO RELATIONS RECEIVE BOOST FROM BRUSSELS

Published in Field Reports

By Kakha Jibladze (3/7/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On February 27, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili met with NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in Brussels. The meeting followed a generally positive report from a NATO assessment team that spent five days in Tbilisi. According to Scheffer, while the “road” to NATO is “long and winding,” Georgia is “on track.
On February 27, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili met with NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in Brussels. The meeting followed a generally positive report from a NATO assessment team that spent five days in Tbilisi. According to Scheffer, while the “road” to NATO is “long and winding,” Georgia is “on track.”

“I never give time frames, or dates, or months, or years; it is a performance-based process… And Georgia has performed well and it is performing well,” Scheffer said. “Go on working and at a certain stage other steps will follow.”

While Georgia has claimed NATO aspirations for years, little was done to move toward the organization under former president Eduard Shevardnadze. However, since Saakashvili came to power in 2003, the country has aggressively courted the alliance as a potential balancing force for Russia’s influence in the region.

NATO has responded in turn, although the alliance has fluctuated from slight encouragement to downright praise as Tbilisi has gone through the prerequisite steps to receive the Membership Action Plan (MAP). Currently Georgia is fulfilling the Intensified Dialogue stage of the process. While this is an important step for Georgia, it does not guarantee membership.

Despite the uncertainties regarding Georgia’s eventual membership – or when the country will receive the coveted MAP – Moscow’s reaction to Tbilisi’s ambitions has been swift and severe. In a February 28 interview with Rossiskaya Gazeta, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia “will not permit” NATO expansion to reach its borders, in a thinly veiled reference to Georgia that apparently ignores the NATO membership of the Baltic states on Russia’s border.

However, Georgian politicians, for the most part, have flaunted their new status. On March 1, the Georgian parliament decided to create a special “pro-NATO declaration.” The exact contents of the document is still unknown, although lawmakers say it will express Georgia’s desire to integrate into NATO, and the organization’s role as a stabilizer in the region.

Saakashvili has also downplayed suggestions that Moscow can dictate which path the country takes. Without naming names, during Ukrainian president Victor Yushchenko’s visit last week he stated “No country can put its veto on the development of relations between NATO and Georgia.”

In addition to the construction of a second, NATO-standard military base, the Georgian president also told CNN that the country was prepared to send “several hundred” soldiers to aid the NATO effort in Afghanistan. There are currently around 800 Georgian soldiers in Iraq and Saakashvili added that more could be sent.

NATO support in Georgia is not universal, however. In February, opposition groups like the National Forum and the Industrialists began to question if NATO membership would have an adverse effect on Georgia’s attempts to regain its territorial integrity. Support for NATO is around 80 percent in the country according to polls, yet analysts noted that most support is tied to the population’s belief that NATO membership will mean the quick return of the two secessionist territories – Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Members of the ruling National Movement decried the speculations against NATO membership as “Russian propaganda”, and both Saakashvili and Scheffer have taken pains to address the rumors. According to Scheffer, while NATO supports Georgia’s territorial integrity and the resolution of the conflicts, the alliance “is not seeking a direct role in the solution of these conflicts.”

While NATO membership is widely considered a crucial step toward Georgia’s ambitions to create a stable and democratic country, it is clear that Russia does not want to face NATO expansion into its own ‘near abroad.’ However, if Tbilisi can maintain its positive reform record with the alliance, it will be easier to face down Russian threats and ploys.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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