The main intrigue of the May 12 parliamentary elections of Armenia will evidently be if the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), which has been the core of the government since 1999,  will keep its leading position or will share its powers with another “party of power.”

The RPA was founded in 1990 by a group of activists of nationalist ideology led by Ashot Navasardian, a Soviet-era dissident. Its official ideology is so-called tseghakron (stands for “nation-religion”) of Garegin Nzhdeh – a prominent political figure of the first half of 20^th century who died in the Gulags in 1955. Tseghahkron implies that the national identity and nation-state are highest values for Armenians, and should serve as a religion for them. In 1998, after the death of Navasardian, a large group of so-called Yerkrapahs (Karabakh war veterans) joined the RPA. Their leader Vazgen Sarkissian, then defense minister, became the party leader and after the June 1999 elections also ascended to the post of  prime minister. In May 2000, Andranik Markaryan replaced Vazgen Sarkissian who fell victim of the terrorist act of October 27, 1999, when gunmen entered the parliament and killed Sarkissian as well as the speaker of parliament and several other officials. Markaryan died on March 25, 2007, his seven-year tenure being the longest period of stability and rapid economy growth of Armenia, during his tenure, the country was even branded “The Caucasian Tiger” by the World Bank due to its impressive economic performance. On April 4, Serge Sarkissian, previously defense minister, was appointed prime minister to lead Markaryan’s government for the one month remaining before its resignation prior to the May 12 elections.

The RPA faces several challenges, which the death of Markaryan, its long-term and skilful leader, has exacerbated. The first challenge is keeping its grip on power. Paradoxically, the main danger in this aspect arises not from any official opposition party (they are weak and fail to co-ordinate their actions), but from a new party, which pledges to follow essentially the same path as RPA has followed so far. This would-be ruling party, Bargavach Hayastan  (Prosperous Armenia) led by Gagik Tsarukian, one of the wealthiest people of Armenia, came to the scene last year,. Prosperous Armenia has managed to gain the sympathies of a significant part of the population, especially, the poor, not least because of the large-scale “charity actions” funded by Tsarukian. Hence Prosperous Armenia is evidently attracting potential opposition voters. However, this party, declaring its ambitions to become part of the ruling elite, is short of people having experience in working on key state posts, as most of its activists are mid-level state officials. As for the elections, the administrative and financial resources of both parties look similar. After the initial shock caused by the growing popularity of Prosperous Armenia (and aggravated by Markaryan’s death), the RPA said it ambitions have become as high as to seek a majority in the 131-seat parliament. Currently, RPA has 40 seats and runs a coalition government with two smaller parties.

The second challenge is the danger of ideological degradation. Having declared itself a “national-conservative” party, the RPA has tried to support its ideological principles, including by amending the school curriculum and regulating relations between Armenia and the Diaspora, etc. However, since the late 1990s, many people joined it just to become part of the ruling elite. Members of Yerkrapah were followed by ministers, community leaders, and businessmen. Thus the RPA faces the perspective of becoming a “trade union of state officials,” such as Yedinaya Rossia (United Russia) in Russia. In this sense, the death of Markaryan, also a Soviet-era dissident, was a heavy loss for the party, as he managed to combine ideological “purity” with pragmatism. It is not evident that Serge Sarkissian, who joined the party as late as last July, will be similarly successful in this respect. His recent interview to the Financial Times on April 9, in which he said the government may be forced to choose between securing economic growth and protecting human rights, is an indication of this danger.

The third and probably most serious challenge is the possible conflict between Serge Sarkissian and Robert Kocharian, both before and after the May elections. Kocharian and Sarkissian have co-operated since the late 1980s, when they were among the leaders of the movement for the separation of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan, and later among those who governed Karabakh during the war with Azerbaijan. Yet they increasingly obviously becoming rivals. Kocharian’s second and last term as president expires in 2008, but Kocharian has declared his intention not to leave active political life thereafter. Sarkissian, in his turn, is seen as the most likely next president, and success in the May parliamentary elections will enhance his chances. It is not clear what particular post or position Kocharian will seek, but it is evident that Prosperous Armenia – a party strongly supported and allegedly controlled by Kocharian – is expected to play a key role in the plans of the current non-partisan president. It is noteworthy that Tsarukian, the formal leader of Prosperous Armenia, has said that he will not seek any government post, and rumors allege that the businessman was simply pushed by Kocharian to lead this party. The most likely scenario is that Kocharian, with Prosperous Armenia, tries to create a counter-balance to RPA, thus acquiring more room for maneuver against Sarkissian when and if he takes the office of President next year. In fact, Kocharian has not made his plans clear, and there is a broad range of speculations as for the possible actions of the two leaders (and their parties), during the battles in the coming months. There is concern that violent actions will not be excluded either. The recent assassination attempt on a RPA activist and explosions near two Prosperous Armenia offices may be part of these battles.