During June 18-19, the presidents of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, and the Prime Minister of Moldova met in Baku for a summit of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM. The summit was also attended by significant proponents of GUAM’s agenda within the EU, through the presidents of Poland, Lithuania and Romania. However, the summit failed to attract participation of the EU presidency and commission.

A main outcome of the meeting was the signing of a joint declaration stating that the members shall “expand cooperation with a view to promote democratic values, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, attain sustainable social and economic development and ensure security and stability in the GUAM region.” The unresolved conflicts over Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh dominated the agenda and the declaration specifically underlined the importance of settling protracted conflicts in the GUAM region according to the principle of territorial integrity, and of resolving conflicts through reintegrating secessionist regions into state structures. According to these principles, the members drafted a resolution on the unresolved conflicts for submission to the UN General Assembly.

Georgia’s president Mikheil Saakashvili used the occasion for stating that “time is expiring” for South Ossetia’s de facto leader, Eduard Kokoity, and that Tbilisi is planning to resolve this conflict shortly, however in a peaceful manner. According to Saakashvili, this will take place through negotiations on autonomy with South Ossetia’s Tbilisi-supported provisional administration under Dmitri Sanakoyev.

With the member states displaying a common position on the unresolved conflicts, GUAM’s potential for playing a role in their resolution was a topic for discussion, and the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, stated that GUAM’s increasing international importance combined with the economic development of its members do grant it importance in this regard. Ahead of the summit, participants agreed to consider the previously discussed issue of creating a joint GUAM peacekeeping force. A stated ambition on the part of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, this would among other tasks develop a capability for deployment in conflict regions in GUAM countries under a UN or OSCE mandate, thus potentially replacing existing Russian CIS peacekeeping forces. However, it seems that skepticism among other GUAM members, especially on the part of Moldova, on the desirability of creating such a force provided for little progress on the issue.

Officials in Moscow reacted negatively to these discussions, stating that any deployment of GUAM peacekeepers in the conflict zones would be unacceptable to the regions in question, and that this initiative was intended to disrupt the functioning of existing institutions and current CIS peacekeeping operations in Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. GUAM was furthermore described as a mainly U.S.-supported organization set on promoting anti-Russian policies.

Other discussions focused on enhancing the possibilities for transporting Caspian energy resources to Europe through GUAM countries, bypassing Russia. The viability of these plans is jeopardized especially in light of the May 12 agreement between Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on future increases in Turkmen gas exports via Kazakhstan through the Russian pipeline network. However, the summit’s main focus in terms of energy was on the previously proposed extension of the Odessa-Brody pipeline to Poland through Plock to Gdansk, and on possibilities of transporting Azerbaijani oil through this route and on to the West European market. Aliyev stated that planned increases in Azerbaijani oil production will suffice in filling the Odessa-Brody-Gdansk pipeline.

The formation of GUAM in 1997 was intended as an organizational alternative to the CIS, aimed at counteracting Russian influence over its near abroad. In its previous form, GUAM produced few concrete results, however the peaceful revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s emergence as an energy player provided for a revitalization of the grouping, addressed at a meeting in Chisinau in 2005. The formation of the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM at a meeting in Kiev in 2006 aimed at institutionalizing GUAM into an international organization, rather than an informal group of former Soviet states. Measures included adopting a GUAM charter, introducing a secretary general and scheduling regular high-level meetings. During the Ukrainian chairmanship ending this month, little progress has nevertheless been made in terms of implementing the institutionalization process, and neither the Ukrainian, nor the Moldovan parliament has ratified the GUAM charter. It remains to be seen whether Azerbaijan’s chairmanship starting in July will provide for more decisive steps toward granting GUAM credibility as an international organization.