Wednesday, 05 September 2007

KAZAKHSTAN’S POLITICAL PROSPECTS LOOK GRIM AFTER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Published in Field Reports

By Farkhad Sharip (9/5/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The outcome of parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan held on August 18 surpassed the pro-presidential forces’ most optimistic expectations of and discouraged other contenders for parliament seats. With a staggering 88.5% votes won in the elections, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan party takes up all seats in parliament and practically monopolize all power in Soviet-era communist party style.

The outcome of parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan held on August 18 surpassed the pro-presidential forces’ most optimistic expectations of and discouraged other contenders for parliament seats. With a staggering 88.5% votes won in the elections, Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan party takes up all seats in parliament and practically monopolize all power in Soviet-era communist party style.

Vote counting in some places were still in progress when the Central Election Commission announced the landslide victory of Nur Otan with a staggering 88.5 percent of votes of votes cast.

The depressing news for democratic forces was that none of Nur Otan’s two rivals, the All-National Social Democratic Party and Ak Zhol party could get even achieve 7 percent of votes to make their way into parliament. With a deplorable 4.6 percent of votes, the social democrats showed the second best results while the Ak Zhol party barely managed to gather 3,2 percent. No one doubted that Nur Otan, backed up by enormous administrative and financial resources and, most importantly, by the uncontested positive image of Nursultan Nazarbayev, would easily win the elections. But the incredibly wide margin by which the ruling party won the elections triggered protests from defeated political parties and puzzled observers. Before the elections, analysts were almost unanimous in their belief that Ak Zhol and the All-National Social Democratic Party, with considerable public sympathy on their side, would receive at least 20 percent of votes.

The election results were a deep disappointment not only for the defeated parties but also for democratic forces as a whole. The resounding victory turns the ruling party into the single political force in the country with unlimited decision making power. The complete authority of  Nur Otan purged parliament of the last remaining few critics and whistle blowers. Pessimists fear that the parliament, which has already fallen into disrepute knuckling under to presidential power on every issue, will be reduced to nullity under Nur Otan.

Western observers were conspicuously restrained in their assessment of the elections. A press-release circulated by the European Union Presidency merely stated that elections “failed to meet a number of international standards, in particular with regard to the legal framework and the vote count”. At the same time, the Presidency of the EU lauded “the efforts of the Central Election Commission towards enhancing the transparency of the election process”. Election authorities in Kazakhstan culled out only favorable comments from western observers for public consumption, effectively omitting even slightly critical observations. Taskyn Rakhimbekov, the head of the National Network of Independent Observers, reported numerous violations of the vote counting rules in nine regions. Leaders of the All-National Social Democratic Party stated that by August 28, regional branches of the party had filed 322 lawsuits at the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Central Election Committee listing violations of the election law.

In an obvious attempt to take the steam out of the tense situation, state secretary Kanat Saudabayev called on political parties to face the realities and recognize the outcome of the elections and cooperate with the ruling party contributing to the political renewal of the country. But the conciliatory tone of his message was rejected by mainstream opposition forces. Leaders of the All-National Social Democratic Party, Ak Zhol and the People’s Communist Party of Kazakhstan jointly made an eloquent appeal to President Nursultan Nazarbayev demanding that the parliamentary elections be recognized as illegitimate. The losers clamor for rerun elections, and in their appeal to the president warn that the domination of a single party in parliament amounts to political stagnation and the resurrection of the communist party of Soviet era.

President Nazarbayev did not bother to answer the challenges from the defeated. He triumphantly waved to the crowd in noisy celebrations of the victory of his party staged the day after the elections, before final results of the voting were announced by the Central Election Committee. He called on the opposition for calm and peace, saying that the election victory of Nur Otan was “the choice of the people” and his party would cooperate with all political parties.

Many analysts are inclined to conclude that given the lack of solidarity in the opposition’s ranks, and endless internal strife within other political parties, the crushing defeat of Nur Otan’s opponents was inevitable. “Minor violations” of the voting procedures, recognized also by election authorities, were largely ignored by international observers and drowned in positive assessments of the” progress” made by Kazakhstan since the last parliamentary elections.  To outsiders, the façade of the election scene in Kazakhstan may seem to be flawless. Seven political parties participated in the elections, and no serious conflict between authorities and observers was reported, all political parties had access to media during the election campaign and voters were given the choice to use either ballot papers or electronic voting machines.

But preoccupied with the democratic décor of the elections, the authorities appear to be losing the voters’ confidence. Independent reports say that 77 percent of the electorate in Astana and 60 percent in Almaty did not go to the polling stations. The turnout was higher in law abiding rural areas, where local akims from Nur Otan’s ranks easily affect the minds of the people.

Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan revealed what some Russian observers call Asian-style democracy with European content. Shoring up his decaying Nur Otan party through controversial constitutional amendments, and using an enormous propaganda machine and whisking away criticism from the West, Nursultan Nazarbayev appears to have made a decisive move towards the perpetuation of his authoritarian power. In his recent interview to the Russian Vesti television program, Nazarbayev praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a wise political leader who deserves life-time presidency. It is quite logical that President Nazarbayev, growing impatient with western pressure for comprehensive political reform, loathes any change of the political environment and turbulence in the region. But the stunning election victory of Nur Otan may also prove costly to the regime if the party fails to meet its pre-election promises and sticks to iron-hand rule.
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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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