Wednesday, 03 October 2007

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UZBEKISTAN: FREE AND FAIR?

Published in Field Reports

By Erkin Akhmadov (10/3/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

This fall promises to be full of political activity in Uzbekistan. On September 18, Uzbekistan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the date of the next Presidential elections, to be held on December 23, 2007. The election campaign started on September 21.

This fall promises to be full of political activity in Uzbekistan. On September 18, Uzbekistan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the date of the next Presidential elections, to be held on December 23, 2007. The election campaign started on September 21. On September 26, the CEC and the National Television and Radio company of Uzbekistan signed an agreement on objective coverage and reporting of preparations and holding of the Presidential elections. The long awaited announcement triggered the attention of many international observers, local groups and potential candidates for the presidency.

On the threshold of presidential elections in Uzbekistan, very little, if anything, is known about the six candidates who intend to run. The September 26 agreement to provide objective coverage and reporting of the preparations and conduct of the Presidential elections were perhaps aimed to improve the situation. As stated, “the agreement was signed for the purpose of effective organization of explaining the national electoral legislation to voters; providing openness, publicity, and transparency of the process; further elevation of legal culture among voters and timely information about stages, dates and content of the main events in the process.”

In fact, the purpose of the agreement sounds exactly like the content of the law “On the Elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan”. Normally, media coverage is an essential part of the elections process. Therefore, it prompts the question about the need of such an agreement between the Central Election Commission and the National Television company, which was in any case certain to embark upon this task.

Currently, there are five registered political parties. From them, only Dilor Tashmukhamedova of the opposition party Adolat has registered with the Central Election Commission. The unregistered candidates include Jahongir Shosalimov and Abdullo Tojiboy Ogli, from Tashkent, and Ahtam Shoymardonov, from the town of Chirchiq near the capital. All three are human rights activists from an unregistered group, the Alliance of Human Rights Defenders of Uzbekistan. The other declared candidate is Suhbat Abdullaev, a professor and medical doctor from the western city of Khorazm. Akbar Aliev, a native of the southern Qashqadaryo Province, describing himself as a "scientist, poet, sociologist, philosopher, historian, and specialist in literature”, has announced his intention to run in the country's presidential elections as well.

Under current legislation, an Uzbek citizen can be nominated for the presidency either by a political party or by an initiative group of 300 people. They also need to collect the signatures of 700,000 eligible voters and submit an application to the CEC. Ideally, media coverage should play an integral role in spreading the word about candidates. However, in a situation where local media remains tightly controlled by the authorities, it is hard to guarantee that independent candidates will have access to Uzbek media during the campaign. Internet penetration is low in the country, and web users are concentrated mostly in big cities. Some 60 percent of Uzbekistan's population lives in rural areas. This could pose problems considering that all candidates must collect signatures for at least 300 registered members of either a political party or initiative group, as well as a minimum of 5 percent of the country's eligible voters.

In addition to the “informational vacuum”, the law states that the nomination may start 65 days before and end 45 days before the elections. A political party can nominate its candidate only if it was registered by the Justice Ministry at least six months prior to the announcement of the election campaign. This means that candidates nominated from unregistered parties have no legal basis for running in the elections.

The incumbent president, Islam Karimov, still has not announced whether he will run in the upcoming elections. While he is constitutionally barred from running for another term, there are several legal loopholes for him to remain in the seat. He may hold another referendum, declare that he served only one term after amending the Constitution in 2000 and making the presidential term 7 years, or win a two-thirds majority vote in both houses of parliament in favor of changing the Constitution. To date, Uzbek elections have never been recognized as “free and fair” by Western election monitors. In January 2000, Karimov won elections that involved another candidate, who was not in any sense a real competitor as the opposition was not allowed to participate. This time around, none of the five unofficial candidates who have stepped up represents any political grouping, and the Uzbek state-controlled media have not yet reported their existence. How much help the agreement between the CEC and the National Elections Commission may be, still remains to be seen.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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