Recent political unrest in Georgia and the subsequent decision by the Georgian President, Mikhail Saakashvili, to declare a State of Emergency and hold early Presidential elections set for January 5, received a very mixed reaction in neighboring Azerbaijan. While Azerbaijani politicians and public figures expressed sorrow over the turmoil in Georgia, some also showed irritation on how the West handled the situation in Georgia compared to similar events in Azerbaijan back in 2003.

Ilgar Mammadov, one of the most respected independent analysts in Baku, in his recent op-ed on the popular news site day.az compared Georgia to a bottleneck. While most of the energy in the region is located in Central Asia and Azerbaijan (the body of the bottle), the only alternative outlet for their export through non-Russian territory is Georgia. Thus, in Mammadov’s opinion, Georgia is the key battlefield between the West and Russia now, with the latter trying to squeeze down Georgia and thus maintain control over the export routes. “If Russia controls Georgia, then Azerbaijan itself will run to the Kremlin,” concluded Mammadov.

Indeed, there is no doubt in the minds of Azerbaijanis that the recent opposition uprising in Tbilisi is fueled and controlled by political circles in Moscow, although no overwhelming evidence of Russian participation in the recent events was provided by Georgian authorities. Opposition figures in Baku once again got re-energized by the Georgian events, believing that the tide of democratic wave is once again coming to the region. The victory of pro-democratic forces in the last Parliamentary elections in Ukraine adds more fuel to this theory. However, once again they seem to be disillusioned by their own hopes and misplaced expectations.

On another note, the violence in the streets of Tbilisi reminded many in Azerbaijan of the brutal clashes in Baku between police forces and opposition protestors in the aftermath of the 2003 Presidential elections. At that time, many both inside the country and outside saw the crackdown against the opposition as a gross human rights violation, although security forces and the representatives of the ruling elite explained the events as a necessary measure to preserve the stability in the country and maintain the geopolitical balance in the region. In Georgia, the recent crackdown received a comparatively mild negative reaction in the West.

A high ranking member of the government of Azerbaijan, who asked to be remained anonymous, expressed irritation and frustration over the double standards imposed by Western countries towards Azerbaijan and Georgia, even when it comes to very similar events. “Perhaps it is after all related to difference over religions. The West always supports Christian Georgia,” the official concluded.

Meanwhile, almost all Azerbaijanis believe that no matter the direction that political developments in the neighboring country will take, it will still bring greater risk and danger for the prosperity and stability of Azerbaijan. Many worry that it will negatively affect the operations of the major energy pipelines and the construction of the Baku-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway. Khazar Ibrahim, spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated in the weekly briefing that Azerbaijan considers the events in Georgia as an internal matter of that country, but expressed hope that they will be settled down in a peaceful manner in the nearest future.

Rovnag Abdullayev, the President of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), also cautiously assessed the situation in Georgia, but informed the media representatives that SOCAR operations in Georgia have not been affected.

Should Georgia continue to experience political instability with possible negative consequences, Azerbaijan will be the main loser aside from Georgia itself. Speculations persist in Baku on whether President Saakashvili will remain on top of the game or lose the election. Fikret Sadigov, an independent political analyst, believes that after all Saakashvili will maintain grip on power, whereas respected and experienced diplomat, former advisor to President Aliyev Vafa Guluzadeh, stated on day.az that Saakashvili has become boring for all both abroad and in Georgia. In any case, Azerbaijanis sincerely wish Georgians stability and prosperity, like a good neighbor would do.