Wednesday, 14 November 2007

GEORGIA FACES EARLY ELECTIONS FOLLOWING POLITICAL CRISIS

Published in Field Reports

By Kakha Jibladze (11/14/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Georgia is bracing for early elections after President Mikheil Saakashvili announced plans for snap presidential elections last week in an effort to end a political confrontation between the government and opposition groups. While the international community has applauded the move, local opposition leaders maintain the country is still in crisis.

On November 7, after six days of peaceful protests in the capital, Tbilisi, the Georgian government attempted to clear the main avenue of demonstrators.

Georgia is bracing for early elections after President Mikheil Saakashvili announced plans for snap presidential elections last week in an effort to end a political confrontation between the government and opposition groups. While the international community has applauded the move, local opposition leaders maintain the country is still in crisis.

On November 7, after six days of peaceful protests in the capital, Tbilisi, the Georgian government attempted to clear the main avenue of demonstrators. However, by midday the protestors retook the street and special riot police were brought in to control the crowds, which had grown from a few dozen to several hundred.

As the crowd grew, riot police fired tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets on the protestors, pushing them back away from the parliament and forcing them to scatter down side streets. As control was reestablished on the main Rustaveli avenue, protestors regrouped at the historic square of Rike across the Mtkvari river. However, riot police also forcibly broke up the crowds there. According to official sources, over 500 people were hospitalized throughout the day, though only several dozen were not discharged the same day.

By Wednesday night, the protests had disbanded, although the opposition television station Imedi was airing footage of riot police beating civilians and it was widely assumed that the protests would continue on Thursday. However mid-way through Imedi’s newscast Wednesday night, Special Forces broke into the building and took the station off the air.

Immediately following that, the president called for a state of emergency and all television and radio media – with the exception of state-owned channels – were temporarily closed.

According to the government, Imedi was closed after officials realized the protests were part of a larger Russian plot – organized in part by Imedi’s owner Badri Patarkatsishvili – to overthrow the government. Patarkatsishvili had weeks before handed a controlling stake in Imedi to American media tycoon Rupert Murdoch, but maintained his ownership interests. To date, the only evidence the government has presented to back up those allegations are comments Patarkatsishvili made on November 7 and 8 that he was prepared to “utilize all of his resources” to put an end to Saakashvili’s “fascist regime.”

However opposition leaders, particularly the nine-party opposition coalition, maintain that the Georgian government closed the television station in order to save itself in the face of protests and is keeping it closed to prevent opposition candidates from properly running a presidential campaign against Saakashvili.

The government also initially charged two opposition leaders, Shalva Natelashvili and Konstantin Gamsakhurdia, with aiding and abetting Russia in a plot to destabilize and overthrow the government. However Saturday, November 10, the Prosecutor General’s office stated the two men were only wanted for “questioning.”

Negotiations are currently underway between several opposition parties and the government. However, the opposition maintains that as long as the state of emergency remains in effect – and Imedi remains off the air – they will continue their fight. During a press conference Tuesday, November 13, Matthew Bryza, the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, stated that the ban on media would be lifted in three days.

“I know from my conversation just now with the Speaker of Parliament [Nino Burjanadze], that it sounds like [the] state of emergency will be lifted in [the] next two of three days; I think on [the] 16th [of November],” Bryza said, noting that would give the opposition “plenty of time” to prepare for elections January 5.

The international community, including the United States, has stated that the elections must meet international standards in order for Saakashvili to restore his tarnished image as a democratic reformer. International reaction to the events November 7 was swift; Bryza called the decision to forcibly remove protestors and close down independent media a “disappointment” in an interview with the New York Times.

In order to restore trust and international support for his government, President Saakashvili must make sure the January 5 elections meet the highest international standards – not an easy task with less than two months to prepare. While it is commonly assumed he can still win the election, any shadow of a doubt on the legitimacy of the election could further tarnish his reputation as a democratic reformer and create more obstacles for Georgia’s development.
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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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