On June 3, Kyrgyzstan’s President Kurmanbek Bakiev appointed his brother, Janysh Bakiev, as head of the State Security Service, which is responsible for the personal security of government officials.  He has been out of office for almost two years after his dismissal as Deputy Chairman of the National Security Service (NSS), a result of the political scandal surrounding the planting of heroin on Omurbek Tekebaev, an ardent opposition member, in Warsaw’s airport. Within the recent government reshuffle, his return, while generating different interpretations, appears the most sensational.

Janysh Bakiev, being the president’s brother and a former NSS officer, remains bedeviled in the public view as a highly influential figure on cadre matters and activities of law enforcement agencies. As one of seven brothers, he started his career in the early 1980s as an average law enforcement officer. His steady career advancement was disrupted with his sudden appointment as Deputy Chairman of the National Security Service (NSS) to “ensure the reliability of information” going to the president.

However, after less than a year, in September 2006 he was relieved from his position following the scandal better known as “matryoshka gate,” in which he reportedly took part in disgracing one of the president’s strong opponents, then parliamentarian Omurbek Tekebaev. Tekebaev was actively pushing for reforms earlier promised by Bakiev through organizing mass rallies. After the parliament’s unanimous conviction of Janysh Bakiev for his involvement in the case, the president had to dismiss the NSS leadership including his brother. The conviction og Janysh Bakiev’s role in the setup is widespread, especially after an explanatory document by the deputy chief of Security at Manas international airport, Nadyr Mamyrov, revealed Janysh Bakiev’s personal order to execute the operation. Despite the latter’s rejection of this incriminating evidence, a hand-writing test proved otherwise.

The Public Prosecutor, nagged by the parliament to investigate the issue, showed little willingness to proceed into facts and conclude the case. According to Tekebaev, “It does not even suspect anybody, let alone accuse.” Nevertheless, Janysh Bakiev sought to clear his name, even though the parliament’s call for the Public Prosecutor to open the case against Janysh Bakiev was a recommendation.  In September 2007 the Supreme Court issued a final verdict supporting two lower instance courts’ decisions of his acquittal.

While being out of office, Janysh Bakiev kept busy with a couple of foundations such as the Foundation of Jusupbek Bakiev, named after their eldest brother, and the Security and Law and Order Foundation. Although providing lavish support for social projects, and ammunition and bonuses for law enforcement officers respectively, their sources of funding remain veiled and are confined to Janysh Bakiev’s personal “connections,” in turn fueling speculations on their actual activities.

Janysh Bakiev is also known for his desire to enter politics.  Being a member of the Republican Party of Labor and Unity, whose members were later incorporated into the ruling Ak Jol party, he expressed his willingness to run for by-elections to the parliament, but abruptly changed his mind on the ground that it was an “unethical and politically wrong” move to make while his brother holds the Presidency. It would definitely harm President Bakiev’s image, as the public were extremely negative toward Bermet Akaeva and Aidar Akaev, children of the former President, entering the parliament. This dissatisfaction eventually contributed to President Akaev’s ouster.

Nevertheless, Janysh Bakiev’s official return to office as a the head of his brother’s personal bodyguard generates various interpretations.  The hard-core opposition believes that President Bakiev is experiencing a lack of loyal cadres and is therefore attempting to strengthen his political position in light of potential social disturbances stemming from distressing economic hardships. In their view, this provides a practical explanation for appointing a hardly known former NSS officer, Bakyt Kalyev, as Minister of Defense. Unlike the countermeasures expected from the previous Minister of Defense, Ismail Isakov, an experienced military officer, this will enable him to use army forces to shield the government if necessary, the opposition argues.

Observers agree that, given Janysh Bakiev’s new responsibility for the security of the Parliament, the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court, he will be able to expand his influence not only over the law enforcement and security agencies, but also over the social and political spheres, serving as a preparation ground for the next presidential elections in 2010.

Nevertheless, it is also believed that he is not likely to establish control over law enforcement agencies, perhaps being merely President Bakiev’s measure to divert his brother’s attention from entering politics. Indeed, before his appointment, Janysh Bakiev expressed his willingness to run in the next parliamentary elections. Observers also stress that his activities with political overtones served to prepare him as a politician.

In the shorter run, however, the appointment is seen rather as an attempt to keep the balance between the rivaling groups within the president’s team. The recent dismissal of Adaham Madumarov as Speaker of Parliament was considered a victory for Medet Sadyrkulov, the president’s Chief of Cabinet and an apparent foe of Janysh Bakiev. This might well suggest that President Bakiev is seeking to weaken Sadyrkulov’s purportedly unrestricted influence and appease the group led by Janysh Bakiev.

As Bakiev’s popularity declines due to the rising costs of living, he is becoming increasingly prone to transfer the blame for economic misfortunes on the global market. Many see President Bakiev’s recent appointments of the Speaker of Parliament and the Minister of Defense with little known and highly dependable politicians as disregarding professionalism, and being consequential of the President’s growing need for a loyal milieu. This will ensure his smooth endurance through, if not an ability to control, public dissatisfaction.