What was feared the most in Azerbaijan happened. On August 17, a grenade was thrown into the most controversial mosque in the capital city of Baku, the Abu Bekr mosque. As a result, two persons died and dozens more were wounded. President Ilham Aliyev immediately took the investigation under his personal control. Various law enforcement agencies, such as the National Security Ministry and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, are investigating the matter.

The explosion comes at a very sensitive time. The Russian-Georgian war has already created many security risks in the region. An explosion tearing up the BTC pipeline on Turkish territory directly affected Azerbaijan, as the country had to halt the export of its oil. Compared to that, however, the explosion in the mosque could prove much more dangerous. Azerbaijan is facing Presidential elections on October 15, and Baku analysts see this as a deliberate action, seeking to create some sort of internal chaos, instability and uncertainty.

Azerbaijan in the past decade has witnessed a slow growth of radical Islam, especially among youth. This is partly the result of their dissatisfaction with domestic politics, but also a factor of the influence of missionaries from foreign, particularly Gulf countries.

Local analysts believe that the grenade was thrown as a result of internal fighting between religious groups. The Abu Bekr mosque is home to Sunni Muslims of a Salafi-leaning orientation. Its imam, Gamet Suleymanov, has been known for his sharp anti-Western and anti-government preaching. Many radical Islamists have come out of this mosque, and some have even gone on to fight in Chechnya and the Middle East. Gamet has later refuted his links with these radicals and claimed that he is loyal to the ruling regime. Yet, the mosque continued to be the subject of internal religious debates and discussions.

It is not excluded, of course, that Gamet himself and his religious community have become targets of attacks by either extremist Shi’a groups, or an even more radical Sunni community, known as Havarish, which have accused Gamet of collaborating with the authorities. The Imam himself was wounded during the attack.

Azerbaijan, however, has never experienced sectarian violence, and the issue of Shi’a-Sunni identity is often very superficial in this largely secularized country. The prominent Shi’a cleric Haji Ilgar Ibrahimoglu has condemned the attack, and blamed the authorities in misleading religious education of the population.

Azerbaijani government officials and civil society representatives have condemned the attack. Elchin Askerov, deputy chairman of the state committee on work with religious institutions, says that “a Mosque is a holy place. If someone is interested to use it in less than peaceful means, they should be evicted from the mosque and punished.” In several northern regions, special services have conducted law enforcement operations against Wahhabis. But this, in the opinion of local pundits, is not the solution. The more sustainable solution lies with the proper education of the young generation.

Some analysts point to Russia as a possible interested party in the explosion. Oktay Atakhan, chairman of a pro-Western political party, has said that “Today it is in the interest of Russia to escalate Iranian-American tensions and in this respect, a provocation similar to the one in the Abu Bekr mosque would fit the purpose.” Certainly, creating internal instability in Azerbaijan would make President Aliyev and his ruling party more dependent on regional powers to maintain his authority in the country. This, in turn, would mean a decreased intensity of Azerbaijan’s integration towards NATO and the EU, and closer economic ties with Moscow. Iran is also not excluded as an interested party in this situation.

Azerbaijan is a country with long traditions of religious and ethnic tolerance and peaceful co-existence. Ordinary people as well as policy-makers are exceptionally proud of the secular and moderate nature of Islam in the country, and often point to the existence of the Jewish community in Baku and the northern city of Quba as a sign for religious tolerance. The leader of the Jewish community, Simon Kilo, stated that the explosion in the mosque was aimed at the destabilization of the situation prior to the presidential elections. Indeed, the explosion appears to have been aimed not only at pitting a radical religious sect against the secular authorities, but also at creating a rift between the Sunni and Shi’a communities. Moreover, the explosion could create hesitations in the minds of investors, businessmen and security analysts.

It is worth noting that prior to the Parliamentary elections of 2005, prominent journalist Elmer Hussein was killed- an act certainly not in the interest of the authorities. At that time, fingers pointed to Russia and Iran. The situation seems to be repeating itself.