Following a conflict between militants and the Pakistani Army, the authorities struck an agreement on February 16 with Maulana Sufi Muhammad, reportedly a non-violent leader, to introduce Sharia law in the Swat Valley pending an end of fighting by the militants. Muhammad is expected to convince Maulana Fazlullah, his son-in-law and leader of the militants terrorizing local secular officials, to lay down their arms. The deal will reportedly lead to more speedy Sharia-based justice, a ban on movies and education for women, and above all, peace and stability. 

Ever after the secular Awami National Party won the 2007 elections in the valley, it has been losing ground to the local militants who continuously destroyed property and assassinated politicians. 300,000 people fled their homes since then from the area that has been the battleground for 12,000 Pakistani troops and 3,000 militants for more than a year. The conflict resulted in 1,200 casualties and the destruction of 181 schools, with overall damage to property estimated at 3 billion Rupees.

The Swat Deal underlines the limitations of Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan in providing a viable alternative of political development, undermining the state’s legitimacy and capacity to govern as it fails to provide basic security needs and justice to its people. That Sharia principles have already been present in the valley since 1994 should not, therefore, come as a surprise. It was Muhammad himself who introduced them in the 1990s; he also later fought U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

The U.S. Predator strikes further complicate the picture: while aiding the faltering Pakistani counter-insurgency strategy to restore order within its own borders, the attacks also undermine public support for the fight against jihadism and radicalism. The government believes the deal will help ostracize jihadists from local militants and gain public support, something U.S. General Petraeus is considered to have successfully accomplished in Iraq. Fawaz Gerges, a Sarah Lawrence College scholar, insists, however, that “we are still unwilling to make the distinction.” David Kilcullen, a counterinsurgency expert, sheds more light on the complexity: "…tribal leaders and Afghan government officials… [say] that 90% of the people we call the Taliban are actually tribal fighters or Pashtun nationalists.”

Experts fear the agreement may embolden the militants to push for similar deals elsewhere. Responding to how the militants secured control in the area, President Zardari replied: “…it's happened out of denial. Everybody was in denial that they're weak and they won't be able to take over..." The US White House spokesman, Tommy Vietor, issued a statement saying: "We have seen the press reports and are in touch with the government of Pakistan about the ongoing situation in Swat.” Richard C. Holbrooke, the U.S. envoy to the region, stressed that Pakistan, India, and the U.S. faced an “enemy which poses direct threats to our leadership, our capitals, and our people.” Following the army withdrawal, the created vacuum can enable Taliban elements, increasingly pushed into Pakistan by the U.S. operations, to undermine NATO supply routes into Afghanistan.

A professor at Bahria University, Khadim Hussain, believes the truce arrangement signifies the government’s capitulation as the militants now “are running a parallel state." In 2008, the Government concluded a similar agreement with militants who then regrouped and reasserted themselves, says Major General Athar Abbas, who nevertheless expressed optimism with the recent deal. Sherry Rehman, Information Minister, is adamant that the deal is "in no way a sign of the state's weakness," assuring that the President will implement Sharia law only "after the restoration of peace in the region." The government claims the militants are not the Taliban harboring al-Qaeda and that the Sharia system will have "nothing in common" with the formerly Taliban-imposed rule in Afghanistan. “The people of Swat have made it very clear that they want Sharia law as they believe it would make their area peaceful and facilitate quick and affordable delivery of justice,” said journalist Rahimullah Yousafzai.

"When Sharia is implemented, there will be peace, not only in Malakand but all over the world," vouched local Sharia movement member Mohammed Iqbal after the agreement. Most likely, he was hinting at such a deal with the rest of the world. But not all are equally relieved with the arrangement or the prospects, even on the ground: “Every Friday, the Taliban hold summary trials after which they not only pass judgments but also carry out whippings and death sentences,” shopkeeper Muhammad Abdullah retells life with the militants. Human rights groups are still concerned that parallel justice practices will lead to social polarization and negatively impact civil society. Moreover, the militants still occupy strategic positions and employ terrorism, with killings and kidnappings continuing in the region.

The Swat deal, controversial as it is, has certainly played into the hands of Islamic militants and radicals in Pakistan.