Over the last few years, early spring used to be the height of the labor migration season in Central Asia. This year is no different in Uzbekistan, although the financial crisis has undoubtedly affected the employment opportunities of many who used to earn their living abroad. As the labor migrants constitute the most vulnerable group of workers, their value on the labor market has increasingly dropped during the first few months of the crisis. While some local press sources suggest that the flow of labor migrants had significantly decreased, others report quite on the contrary that it is the same or even greater, because people prefer trying their chances outside of the state that can provide no employment for its citizens whatsoever. While the real implications for the region will likely be more obvious in the next few months, at the moment several developments can already be observed.

The destinations of Uzbek labor migrants are normally neighboring Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. Official sources in Russia suggest there are currently about 8 million registered ‘gastarbeiters’. A corresponding amount of workers are unregistered, i.e. lacking a legal basis. Based on Human Rights Watch data, out of 3,5 million Uzbeks working abroad, 80% work in Russia. Some Russian institutions speculate that in the next 2-3 months, about 4 million labor migrants will loose their jobs.

In Kazakhstan, the government decided to cope with large migrant flows from neighboring states by cutting the quotas of foreign workers. Tthe Ministry of Labor and Social Security of the Kazakhstan prepares a moratorium on the entry of the so-called fourth category of the foreign labor force. This category usually includes unskilled agricultural seasonal workers, which constitute the majority of labor migrants from neighboring states. In general, Kazakhstan tends to decrease its quotas for foreign workers; for instance, in 2009 only 66,300 people were allowed to work. This is a reduction of 50% from last year.

Even though the biggest recipients of the Uzbek labor migrants try to decrease, if not completely block, the inflow of foreign workers, it seems that these measures will not have any substantial results. Most migrants from Uzbekistan still leave their families and homes hoping to find any job abroad, saying that it is useless to stay at home, where the situation is even worse. Even those who are abroad at the moment are in no hurry to head home due to the same considerations. Thus, a concern expressed in Russia is that the level of crime may increase due to the labor migrants that will loose their jobs and stay in the country with no means for existence.

Experts of the “Group of Fast Response (Uzbekistan)” claim that the level of remittances sent home by Uzbek migrants has decreased significantly lately. They associate the decrease with the world financial crisis as the survey was conducted between 20 January and 20 February 2009. The Group also mentions that the crisis will force many migrants to return home in the nearest future.

In light of such developments, it will be interesting to observe what the Uzbek authorities will do in order to cope with the consequences of the financial crisis. Local media keep reporting that the level of unemployment in Uzbekistan constantly decreases. Thus, the State Statistics Committee reports that the number of Uzbek citizens registered as searching for a job went from 27,400 down to 22,900 during 2008. Furthermore, the state Labor and Social Security Administration claims conducting job fairs to ensure employment of the population. One such event is planned for March 25, 2009 in Tashkent, offering 12,000 vacancies for 870 enterprises and organizations in the city.

Earlier in March, President Islam Karimov published the book ”World Financial-Economic Crisis, Ways and Measures to Overcome it in the Conditions of Uzbekistan”, where he explains the causes of the world crisis, its effects on the economy of Uzbekistan along with offering solutions for overcoming it. Thus, even though the forecasts of employment opportunities for Uzbeks are gloomy at the moment, the people of Uzbekistan may only hope that the state has a strategy to protect the most vulnerable segments of its population.