On June 12, the leader of the radical non-parliamentary opposition of Armenia, the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosian, declared at a crowded rally in Yerevan that the political bloc led by him will not take active actions until September. The Armenian National Congress, a bloc composed of 18 parties and NGOs, was formed last year, after Ter-Petrosian’s defeat in the presidential elections on February 19. ANC terms the February 19 vote as rigged and does not recognize Serzh Sargsyan as the legitimate president. 

The summer time-out was initiated in an apparent effort to avoid further disappointment of the ANC’s supporters after their formal defeat at the municipal elections of Yerevan on May 31, which ANC had declared as “the second round of the presidential elections.” In his speech, Ter-Petrosian made a bid to further enhance the struggle against the administration of Serzh Sargsyan, and moreover, to consolidate the opposition parties around this goal. To that end, he proposed a twelve-point “platform” for cooperation among the opposition parties. The document was addressed to every opposition political party, but its main targets are obviously the two most influential parties, Zharangutiun (Heritage, which until recently was the only one to have an opposition faction in the National Assembly) and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnakhsutiun (ARFD). The latter used to be a member of the ruling three-party coalition but left it on April 25 after disagreement over the alleged adoption of a Roadmap on Turkish-Armenian rapprochement two days earlier.

The twelve points of the platform, which were declared “preliminary and subject to amendments and additions during further discussion with interested forces,” include various proposals, widely differing in their acceptability for different parties. The first category includes the points acceptable to the ANC only. These are the most radical points of the platform, namely those declaring the current regime criminalized, demanding the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, and organizing early parliamentary and presidential elections.

The points of the ANC platform which will most likely be supported by the Zharangutiun party include the enhancement of efforts aimed at revealing the truth about the tragic events of March 1 2008, and punishing the March 1 wrongdoers. Also, these two parties will certainly find common ground around the goals of releasing all political prisoners (i.e., supporters of Ter-Petrosian accused for participating in the March 1 events) and businessmen who are considered victims of “tax terror.”

As for the ARFD, this traditional nationalist party will support the items of the platform addressing foreign policy, opposing the alleged course of the authorities in Armenian-Turkish relations and in the Nagorno Karabakh settlement process, which they consider contradictory to Armenian interests (e.g., the creation of a joint Turkish-Armenian commission of scholars for studying the Armenian Genocide).

Finally, both opposition parties will inevitably support the proposals of the ANC platform on measures to increase the transparency of election procedures, in particular inking voters’ fingers to prevent multiple voting.

Hence, Ter-Petrosian managed to make proposals to both opposition parties which are impossible for them to refuse. The summer of 2009 is seen by all three parties as a preparation period for the next elections (be it the regular parliamentary elections set for 2012, or the early elections sought by the ANC), and will see contacts and negotiations between these three, and probably additional parties. This could result in a more powerful political attack in September.

Thus, rallies, which have been the only impressive tools of the ANC so far, are unlikely to take place in Armenia in summer. Tensions on the surface will recede in the coming three months. At the same time, the ANC will use this time to consolidate the political and organisational basis for a new attack on the Sargsyan administration later this year.