On February 17-21, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, visited the Central Asian states. As part of the tour, he visited Uzbekistan on February 19 and met with President Islam Karimov in the Oqsaroy residence. Uzbekistan’s President expressed his intention to further develop Uzbek-U.S. cooperation on the establishment of peace and stability in Afghanistan. In return, Holbrooke noted an interest on the U.S. administration’s part in strengthening cooperation on regional security. In addition, Holbrooke emphasized the special importance of Uzbekistan’s position for the settlement of the conflict in Afghanistan.

Holbrooke’s program included visits to all five Central Asian states; however, the visit to Turkmenistan was cancelled in the last moment. The tour resulted in subtle promises of support for U.S. policies from the presidents of the Central Asian republics. Such vagueness about the purposes of the visit has caused many experts to consider the motivations for Holbrooke’s tour to the region as little more than diplomatic politeness. “We talked to all of the countries that have a concern in the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That’s why we’re here today”, stated the Special Representative to journalists in Astana, Kazakhstan.

During his visit to Kazakhstan, Mr. Holbrooke told the Kazakh Minister of Foreign Affairs and State Secretary Kanat Saudabayev that Uzbekistan provides valuable assistance in transiting materials, but no base. It should be recalled that Uzbekistan closed the U.S. airbase in the city of Khanabad after following the controversy between Uzbekistan and the West that resulted from the crackdown on an uprising in Andijan in 2005. Nonetheless, it seems that lately the focus of U.S. cooperation has shifted from human rights issues into security challenges. Relations between the two countries have significantly improved and some diplomats have therefore assumed that Washington will seek to reopen its base on the territory of Uzbekistan.

In addition, Uzbekistan has renewed its role as a platform for the delivery of non-military goods to its southern neighbor. In fact, Uzbekistan currently provides practical assistance in supplying Afghanistan with energy and food; it assists in the establishment of transportation and communications, and takes part in the socioeconomic rebuilding of Afghanistan. In addition, substantial volumes of humanitarian aid are delivered to Afghanistan through the territory of Uzbekistan.

Meanwhile, after his meeting with President Imomali Rakhmon of neighboring Tajikistan on February 20, Holbrooke stated that Washington is interested in establishing closer relations with Tajikistan since due to ethnic, geographic and strategic reasons, this country is utterly important for peaceful conflict resolution in Afghanistan. They also discussed aspects of security in Afghanistan along with energy and water issues. During his short public appearance in Dushanbe, Holbrooke also talked about terrorism, noting that the real threat for the Central Asian region comes less from the Taliban, than from Al-Qaida as the latter prepares international terrorists. Thus, it may well be that the U.S. will focus on cooperation with Tajikistan rather than Uzbekistan for further activities and moves in Afghanistan.

In fact, Kazakhstan is also eager to expand its cooperation with the U.S. As Mr. Saudabayev noted during his meeting with the Special Representative, “Kazakhstan has always been a reliable partner of the United States, starting from September, 11 2001”. Kazakhstan is the leading economy in the region with oil companies in which the U.S. may have significant investment interests. However, from a geopolitical point of view it is unlikely that Kazakhstan would have much to offer in resolving the situation in Afghanistan.

To sum up, there are some important points to be highlighted as a result of Holbrooke’s visit to Central Asia. First, there will be no American military base on the territory of Uzbekistan at least in the nearest future. Second, the U.S. may seriously consider increasing its involvement in and cooperation with certain other states in the region in order to resolve the situation in Afghanistan.