As the one-year agreement on the U.S. airbase at Manas is at the point of renewal, recent visits of high-ranking U.S. officials to Kyrgyzstan are largely viewed as intended to ensure a prolongation of the deal. At the same time, the growing military cooperation between the U.S. and Kyrgyzstan may complicate Bishkek’s relations with Moscow.

Two U.S. delegations, one headed by the U.S. Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, and a second by the Commander of the U.S. Central Command, General David Petraeus, have visited Kyrgyzstan within the last few weeks. Both U.S. officials have expressed their gratitude to the Kyrgyz authorities for their contributions to Operation “Enduring Freedom” in Afghanistan. “We have a very important transit center in Kyrgyzstan.  Every month, up to 35,000 U.S. military servicemen transit to and from Afghanistan through the center. We are very grateful to Kyrgyzstan for its support”, stated Holbrooke at the end of his trip to the region.

In turn, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev provided assurances that cooperation will continue during his meeting with General Petraeus. “The primary challenges and threats to the Central Asian region’s security come from Afghanistan. From this point of view, Kyrgyzstan is interested in maintaining security and stability in Afghanistan and will continue efforts to rebuild the country along with the international community,” the Kyrgyz leader said.

Most political experts agree that the primary objective of these high-level visits is to retain the U.S. Transit Center at the Manas airport near Bishkek. “As the current agreement is to expire soon, Americans want to make sure that the prolongation of the agreement goes smoothly,” said local military expert Orozaly Moldaliev.

However, despite Kyrgyzstan’s “obvious willingness” to contribute to the rebuilding of war-torn Afghanistan and recent mass media publications on the ostensibly signed new deal on the prolongation of the rent for the transit center, no official agreement has yet been signed. As Kyrgyz Minister of Foreign Affairs Kadyrbek Sarbaev stated in an interview, “the one-year agreement on the U.S. Transit Center was signed on June 22, 2009; it is thus too early to talk about its extension”.

It should be noted that the current agreement foresees an automatic prolongation of the rent for next year unless one of the sides terminates it 180 days in advance. In addition, U.S. authorities have allocated US$ 5.5 million for constructing an anti-terrorist training center in the most fragile and remote region in the south of the country. According to the spokesperson of the U.S. Embassy in Bishkek, “the center in Batken oblast will belong to the Kyrgyz government and will be used to train Kyrgyz military and security forces.  Construction of the center will start next year”.

Last summer, the Russian and Kyrgyz Presidents signed a memorandum on military cooperation that foresaw the deployment of Russian troops and the creation of a joint anti-terrorist training center in the south of the country under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Kyrgyz authorities have offered the Batken region also for this purpose. Russia was hoping for it to be located near Osh city, Kyrgyzstan’s second largest city. According to previous arrangements, the final agreement was supposed to be signed before November 1, 2009, but remains inconclusive due to unknown reasons.

Local political experts claim that the construction of the training center will affect relations between Moscow and Bishkek negatively. “Such a demonstrative initiative of the Kyrgyz authorities challenges Russia. From a military standpoint, any American military base or training center in Kyrgyzstan cannot threaten Russian interests since Moscow dominates the region in any case.  However, it is a serious political challenge to Moscow”, Bishkek-based political expert Alexander Knyazev stated.

The training center is part of the military and humanitarian assistance pledged by the United States to Kyrgyzstan. According to the agreement on the Transit Center, in addition to the US$ 60 million rental fee, the American government assented to contributing an additional US$ 110 million on military and humanitarian projects during the year. Other U.S.-sponsored projects that were already implemented include the construction of a military hospital near Bishkek and a training compound for “Scorpion” Kyrgyz Special Forces in Tokmok city, in the north of the country. Along with military and security assistance, the U.S. government has supported several humanitarian projects, such as building a Center for Support of Women in Shopokov and reconstructing one of the rural high school buildings near Bishkek.

Considering that the U.S. is meeting its obligations and providing substantial military and humanitarian assistance to Kyrgyzstan, it is most likely that the agreement on the Transit Center will be prolonged.