In the first days of November, residents of several cities and villages in Uzbekistan started experiencing serious gas shortages. Meanwhile, representatives of the local authorities have not provided any comprehensive explanations to the anxious population, other than warning that the winter will be cold and advising to store alternative fuels to keep their houses warm and businesses running. Experts state that Uzbekistan’s large natural gas export is one of the main reasons for the increasing domestic gas supply crisis, as this provides significant income to the state budget but does not consider the needs of the local population. In any case, many experts predict social unrest if the situation does not change during the cold winter months.

As reported by the Initiative Group of Independent Human Rights Activists (IGIHRA), the head of the administration of the Rishtan region in Ferghana oblast notified the local population that he does not guarantee continued gas supply during the coming winter, and that people should store alternative fuels for heating their houses and cooking. Thus, in public places such as schools and kindergartens, the staff has already started collecting fees for purchasing firewood or coal, or installing stoves for burning alternative fuels. However, Ferghana oblast is not alone in experiencing such difficulties. Residents of Kashkadarya, Syrdarya, Jizakh, Bukhara and even Tashkent oblasts report similar problems.

While causing inconveniences and extra expenditures for ordinary people, the massive gas cuts have become a major problem for numerous small and medium enterprises in Uzbekistan, whose businesses and produce depend heavily on the availability of natural gas. Thus, owners of small bakeries, cafes and other public catering services complain about increased expenditures when relying on alternative fuels, and frequent disruptions in the operation of their businesses. The substantial cuts in gas provisions have also rapidly increased the demand, and therefore the price, for alternative fuels. For instance, a ton of low-calorie Angren coal now costs about 350 thousands Uzbek Soms (US$ 200), and a van of firewood about 400 thousands Uzbek Soms (US$ 229), which is slightly higher than the average monthly salary in many regions of Uzbekistan. Local experts think the price rise has not yet reached its peak, and that the current prices may double during the coldest months of winter.

In addition, inspectors charge exaggerated fines to entrepreneurs who refuse to cease their gas consumption or who attempt to access gas pipes illegally. For instance, an owner of a small bakery in Tashkent oblast was fined 8 million Uzbek Soms (US$ 3100) just for refusing to comply with the governmental order. Local sources have reported violent confrontations in some cases. As some entrepreneurs put it, “the government collects all kinds of taxes from us, but does not provide a mere chance to make money.”

Well aware of the massive public discontent, local authorities refer to the presidential decree “On measures for providing preparedness of the economic sectors of the Republic for sustainable operation in the fall-winter period of 2011-2012.” However, this document does not constitute a sound justification for the massive gas cuts, as it does not contain any recommendations for such measures. Moreover, Erkin Khaydarov, representing the press-service of “Uztransgaz,” the company responsible for Uzbekistan’s gas supply, denounced any information about gas cuts in the regions. Khaydarov stated that “Gas is supplied in the planned volumes and normal mode. There are some ongoing works to fix gas and heating systems, and in this case temporary gas cuts are possible.”

Local observers, including the leader of the IGIHRA, think that the main reason for the current uneasy situation is a substantial shortage of “blue fuel” for domestic needs, and the government’s interest in increasing its profits from gas export. Furthermore, the export volumes remain high even though the extraction volumes went down during the last nine months. The State Committee on Statistics reports that in 2011 the extraction of natural gas went down by 4.3 percent in comparison with the corresponding period in 2010.

So far, no attempts by the unhappy local population to extract any reasonable explanations or actions from the representatives of local authorities have been successful. For example, when a number of local residents in the Syrdarya region tried to storm the building of the local administration, they were dispersed by police. When the forecasted cold winter will start in Uzbekistan, it will undoubtedly be much harder for the authorities to constrain public discontent.