By Alexei Igushev (2/10/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)
According to the latest UN Human Development Report, 83 percent of Tajikistan\'s population of six million live below the poverty line of subsisting on under $1 a day. According to international relief organizations accredited in Tajikistan, almost one million Tajik citizens are in the state of permanent labor migration, i.e.
According to the latest UN Human Development Report, 83 percent of Tajikistan\'s population of six million live below the poverty line of subsisting on under $1 a day. According to international relief organizations accredited in Tajikistan, almost one million Tajik citizens are in the state of permanent labor migration, i.e. almost every sixth Tajikistani is a seasonal worker. Two major labor markets for Tajik \"gastarbeiters\" are Russia and Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan is not in this list - three years ago Tashkent established a tough visa regime, disregarding that one million ethnic Uzbeks reside in Tajikistan, and much more ethnic Tajiks have the Uzbek citizenship.
The recent deportation of a hundred Tajik seasonal workers from Russia followed by a PR campaign in the Russian press, has been widely seen as a tasteless \"political show\". The Tajik Foreign Ministry official made a statement, \"Many of the Tajiks forcibly deported from Russia were law-abiding citizens in possession of the necessary work permits, which Russian police deliberately destroyed\". Not much is known about particular politicians standing behind the scene. According to the newspaper \"Izvestiya\", the authorities eventually failed to \"ship\" the Tajik workers home - there was not enough room in the cargo plane.
However it is hardly a coincidence that the deportation of Tajik migrants was supposed to take place on the eve and of two of Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov\'s visits - to Washington and to Paris. The West has acknowledged Tajikistan\'s economic reforms and efforts in countering terrorism and drug trafficking. Tajikistan is using this advantage to get loans and humanitarian aid from the West. The Tajik leader\'s increasing contacts with his Western counterparts raise concerns in Russia. Russia\'s military outposts have been in the Pamirs since the 19th century. In the years of the Tajik civil war conflict, the Russian 201st motorized division, maintaining neutrality between the warring factions, protected and saved the major objects of Tajikistan\'s infrastructure - hydropower plants, water reservoirs, etc.
Some experts say the deportation of Tajik workers is related to the approaching expiration of the inter-State agreement on the Russian military base deployment in Dushanbe. Last year, the municipal authorities approved a new architectural project - the 201st division\'s military barracks located almost in the center of the Tajik capital will be demolished; a new presidential complex will be erected there. The Tajiks openly hint that the military presence has a certain price - one has to pay for the land one uses.
Moscow, in turn, reminds Dushanbe that it keeps protecting a 1,400-kilometer segment of the porous Tajik-Afghan border not demanding anything in exchange. This borderline is a real headache for both Tajikistan and Russia. The Taliban regime has been defeated, but the drug flow from Afghanistan has not lessened. On the contrary, according to the latest reports by the UN and the Tajik national drug control agencies, as well as by the Russian Federal Frontier Service, the flow of drugs from Northern Afghanistan is increasing.
Afghanistan remains the number one producer of heroin in the world. Weakened by its own problems, Tajikistan is unable to cope with such a long and semitransparent border. The Russian leadership understands the vital importance of its military presence in Central Asia, especially in Tajikistan. It is easier to withstand the drug flow and religious/military extremism protecting the 1,400-kilometer borderline, rather than to let lose big territories, making the young and fragile State of Tajikistan even more prone to its still dangerous southern neighbor.
But most of all, Tajikistan\'s \"big brother\" is concerned about the potential \"invasion\" of Americans and other Westerners into this region. So far, the U.S. preferred Kyrgyz and Uzbek air bases to Tajikistan\'s ones, but the Tajiks eagerly accommodated French pilots, those taking part in the anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan. In December 2002, Imomali Rakhmonov and French Foreign Minster Dominique de Villepin discussed further French military presence in Tajikistan. In early 2003, Tajikistan is opening its embassy in Washington.
So far, Imomali Rakhmonov managed to maintain a political equilibrium, satisfying the interests of both Russia and the West. Now the task is becoming more challenging, and Tajikistan has ruled out supporting a war on Iraq. The presence of Westerners of any kind is highly appreciated in all strata of the Tajik society. The Government negotiates with monetary institutions drumming up long-term loans; foreign relief agencies favor the development of cottage business and create jobs for thousands of common Tajiks. However, Tajik labor migrants are reluctant to get back home. For the time being, they have more chances to feed their families from abroad.
In December 2002 the Tajik government approved a three-year program for regulating the temporary employment of Tajik citizens abroad. In the meantime, the UN Development Program in Tajikistan pleaded for donor states to provide the country with an additional $62 million needed in 2003 to finance 53 projects, including provision of safe drinking water, prevention of chronic malnutrition, etc.
Apart from labor migration, Tajikistan is facing other acute problems. At a recent meeting with law enforcement officials, the President raised the issue of human trafficking. Lately, the government adopted Tajikistan\'s National Demographic Concept. This strategic paper is designed mainly for poverty alleviation, considering that Tajikistan\'s birthrate is the highest in Central Asia.
The Tajik press reports that \"at a government session on 18 January, President Rakhmonov noted that GDP increased by 9.1 percent in 2002 compared with the previous year\". In spite of this, the country\'s economy remains fragile. Tajikistan largely depends on both its powerful partners - Russia and the West.