In the early phases of the Iraq-US standoff the best policy for Kazakhstan appeared to be to distance itself from this explosive issue, which had no immediate bearing on domestic matters, as far as possible. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for policy-makers to remain silent, although many of them don\'t show much interest in what is considered to be the business of others. The strongest criticism of the official passive attitude to the events in the Persian Gulf came from the furious opponent of the government Gani Kasymov, a member of parliament, who unsuccessfully contested the presidency in the 1999 elections. Sharply accusing the government of adopting an ostrich policy at a historically decisive moment, he urged the deputies to pass a resolution, denouncing the planned American assault on Iraq and to send a letter of protest to the U.S. Congress. Stirring up public feelings around global matters is a usual tactic of the opponents of the regime in Kazakhstan. But these attacks have so far failed to win public support for the opposition. People have more important matters to think of, and political turmoil in Almaty or Astana seldom spills over into rural areas. The overheated antiwar emotions of the deputies in parliament were considerably subdued when the deputy foreign minister appeared in parliament to reject the rebukes from the deputies. \"We are keeping close track of developments in the Gulf through our diplomatic channels in the Middle East and the UN. Nobody in the Ministry is hiding his head in the sand. Our position has been expressed by the president at the World Economic Forum in Davos. We favor a peaceful settlement of the conflict\" said the foreign ministry official in somewhat elusive terms. Almost all local analysts point out that the likelihood of the potential war in Iraq seriously affecting economic or political life in Kazakhstan is minimal. First, the country if far away from Iraq\'s borders. Secondly, the possibility of ethnic or religious violence in Kazakhstan in case of war in Iraq is ruled out. The Muslim population of the country is moderate and largely tolerant to Christians. Kurds make up a small minority in the South. Third, the volume of trade with Iraq is insignificant. Nevertheless, some apprehensions linger in the air. According to Gulmira Korganbayeva from the Kazakh Center of Strategic Studies, if a war breaks out in Iraq, it will have a powerful, but short-term impact on all oil- and gas-exporting countries, including Kazakhstan. Her view is shared by others, who predict a sudden spike in oil prices in the initial phase of the war, which is good for Kazakhstan, followed by subsequent slumps, which may hit the oil industry of the country hard. Experts fear that prolonged war in Iraq and dropping oil prices caused by that will paralyze key investment projects in the oil sector of Kazakhstan. If the price of oil falls as low as US$ 13 per barrel, it can be lethal for small oil producing companies. Politically speaking, things look less cloudless that last year. In the case of Afghanistan, the government of Kazakhstan did not hesitate to provide Americans with a military air base in Jambul. To strengthen its southern borders with American help, to stem drug-trafficking from Afghanistan, and to prevent the possible incursion of extremist forces was in the best interests of Kazakhstan. At the time, the country could not reject the American military hardware to heighten its border security. But the situation is different now. The principal allies of Kazakhstan within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China and Russia, have openly criticized the American plan of military action against Iraq. Kazakhstan, if it respects its great neighbors and allies, must follow suit. That is the major predicament for Kazakh diplomacy. If it condemns war preparations against Iraq, Kazakhstan can invoke American ire on itself and stir suspicions of solidarity with Muslim brothers in the Arab world. The frequent reiterations by Washington that there should be a line of distinction between terrorists and Muslims seem not to impress the Muslims in Kazakhstan much. In the public eye, the American image of a trail-blazer of democracy and justice has lost much of its luster since the military action in Afghanistan. People have no sympathy for Saddam Hussein either. The most frequent terms in assessing the U.S.-Iraq conflict range from \"gun-wielding American cowboys\" and \"the brutal dictator in Baghdad\". While the majority of people are ignorant of or indifferent to the events in the Gulf, it is political factions, nationalists and communists above all, who eagerly play the Iraq cards to win popularity without a risk of losing anything in the game.