It seems the war actions in Iraq now provide a good pretext for Kazakhstan to expand its military presence in the Caspian, were the big oil has lured too many rivals. Despite hearty handshakes and never-ending talks about confidence- building measures with officials of Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan has little reason to trust any of them. Outwardly disinterested Turkmenistan is equally unpredictable.

An essential part of the military maneuvers, which last till the end of April, is the quick redeployment of army units from the Eastern to Western military district. This is the first ever maneuver involving the rapid movement of huge mobile forces. It is expected that the final stage of training operations in the Western military district on the Caspian will be carried out with the participation of 5000-strong military personnel.

The real reason of such unprecedented activity is only to be guessed. The Military Staff is still trying to persuade the media that the move is motivated by the necessity to guard Western borders against possible infiltrators and to protect the air space from stray missiles fired from the war zone in Iraq. These explanations can hardly satisfy any serious observer. Even in the worst days of Chechen war, which posed a real threat of penetration of extremist forces from Russia, the Western borders were left practically transparent. Frequent disturbers of peace in territorial waters of Kazakhstan have been thought to be fishing vessels from neighboring countries poaching for rare species of fish.

The likelihood of Iraq targeting the Caspian region with a long-range missile or using chemical weapons powerful enough to contaminate a vast area is hard to imagine. Some environmentalists fear that if the despaired Iraqis set oilfields on fire, it may have a negative ecological impact on Kazakhstan. Others argue, at the same time, that any environmental disaster of that sort would not be greater in scale than the pollution of the Atyrau area by oilfields in West Kazakhstan.

Nevertheless, the government of Kazakhstan, as soon as the first bombs exploded in Baghdad, summoned up the cabinet to an emergency meeting. Announced measures include ensuring the reinforced security of embassies and international flights, and tightening of passport control. In the face of the impending “battle for oil”, Kazakhstan can not afford to leave this strategically important part of its territory unprotected.

But that is only a part of the decisive measures taken by the Military Staff to enhance the defense capability of the country. A few weeks before the outbreak of war in Iraq, Kazakhstan deployed anti-aircraft units in the Karagandy region, in the central part of the country. Most significantly, Great Britain has recently expressed its readiness to assist Kazakhstan in creating an integrated air defense system. That is a very welcome gesture for a small nation seeking a closer alliance with the mighty of the world.

In the present context, Kazakhstan is still balancing on a tightrope between partisans and opponents of the war in Iraq. It needs both of them. On March 21 a Defense Ministry spokesman made a formal, carefully worded statement saying that the responsibility for the outbreak of the war rests with Saddam Hussein, regretting at the same time “considerable loss of human lives” among the civil population.

Hostilities in Iraq did not provoke a significant anti-war demonstration. However, the feeling of anxiety is lingering in the air. Apparently, the USA with all its might will smash Iraq in a matter of a few weeks. But will the American juggernaut stop at that? If America chooses Iran as the next target it will have far more economic and political impact on Kazakhstan than the war in Iraq.

Another bad expectation is that if the Americans come into the possession of Iraqi oil, which is almost a certainty, the interest of foreign investors in developing the Kazakh oil sector will wane rapidly. The chairman of the National bank, Grigoriy Marchenko, is nevertheless not so pessimistic about it. According to him, even if oil prices plummet to a dangerous level of 15 dollars for barrel, the money from the National Reserve Fund can be used to sustain the economy above water for at least 24 months. Regrettably, this rosy vision is not shared by everyone.