Wednesday, 09 April 2003

AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT\'S STAFF CHANGES INDICATE THE START OF ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Published in Field Reports

By Fariz Ismailzade (4/9/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On April 3 Azeri President Aliyev made an unexpected trip to Sumgait, the country\'s third largest city, located just 40 km north of Baku. In a heated and tense meeting with the local governmental officials and businessmen, President Aliyev harshly criticized the socio-economic situation in the city and has fired the mayor of Sumgait Tavakkul Mammadov from his position. \"The mayor is relieved from his duties because of major shortcomings in his work\", the President said at the meeting.
On April 3 Azeri President Aliyev made an unexpected trip to Sumgait, the country\'s third largest city, located just 40 km north of Baku. In a heated and tense meeting with the local governmental officials and businessmen, President Aliyev harshly criticized the socio-economic situation in the city and has fired the mayor of Sumgait Tavakkul Mammadov from his position. \"The mayor is relieved from his duties because of major shortcomings in his work\", the President said at the meeting. The deputy Minister of Sport, Youth and Tourism Vagif Aliyev, was appointed the new mayor.

Sumgait, the city of some 300,000 people and one of the largest industrial centers of the country, has been experiencing major economic problems in the past decade. The collapse of the Soviet Union led to broken ties with other industrial centers of the USSR. This, in turn, has left the majority of chemical, petro-chemical and metal-producing plants in the city without demands for goods or supply of raw materials. Unemployment and crime has skyrocketed as a result. Migration out of the city has also been on the rise.

Some local analysts believe that by making changes in the city\'s governance, President Aliyev is trying to tackle the economic problems of the city and through this, gain support in the upcoming presidential elections. Some local polls show that jobs and social welfare rank among the top issues for the Azerbaijani population. Similar to this, several months ago, President Aliyev traveled to Ganja and has also taken measures to develop the city and improve the performance of the local mayor. The latter, at that time, managed to save his job, but received a serious warning from the President.

At the same time, President Aliyev is eager to check the loyalty of the local governors to the ruling party prior to the crucial presidential elections. These elections will be a major test for the ruling elite, and the President is perhaps checking the loyalty of the local businessmen and the governmental officials.

Yet, a majority of local analysts believe that behind all these actions lies an economic power struggle between various segments of the ruling “clan”. At the meeting in Sumgait, the President noted that the city had been ruled by \"3-4 clans\", composed of local businessmen, members of the executive power and their relatives. This power struggle has led to an open fight between the Parliament deputies representing Sumgait and the now deposed mayor. All of these people have received a serious warning from the President.

The head of \"AzerKimya\" (Azeri Chemical), a gigantic chemical complex, Fikret Sadigov also received a certain blame from the President for creating an economic monopoly in the city and appointing his relatives to important positions. He was instructed to help the city by repairing three culture houses.

Whether the President\'s warning to Sumgait\'s elite will solve the problem or not depends on time. The new mayor is committed to economic development and has instructed the local businesses to commit to community development. Yet, there are some, who are not happy with changes. The parliamentarians from Sumgait, who received a serious warning from the President, said that \"the head of state has been misinformed about the situation in the city.\"

The power struggle involving the redistribution of economic influence might continue, and would in this case serve as a potential threat to the unity of the ruling party. Meanwhile, the President himself showed that he firmly controlled the situation in the country and that necessary measures will be taken should local elites behave independently.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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