Wednesday, 21 May 2003

KAZAKHSTAN CLOSES THE DOOR TO CHINA AS SARS PANIC SPREADS

Published in Field Reports

By Marat Yermukanov (5/21/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Those who first sounded alarm bells alerting the public to the threat of a horrible pneumonia epidemic were journalists. Their eye-witness reports from East Asian countries, unlike official sources, depicted the true scale of the SARS epidemic. Media accounts bordered on direct accusations of officials for criminal neglect.
Those who first sounded alarm bells alerting the public to the threat of a horrible pneumonia epidemic were journalists. Their eye-witness reports from East Asian countries, unlike official sources, depicted the true scale of the SARS epidemic. Media accounts bordered on direct accusations of officials for criminal neglect. A few days after these articles appeared in the non-government press, the first suspected cases of lethal pneumonia came from Pavlodar and Aktau, which, however, later were proven false. Yet panic did not subside after that.

On May 8, the government publicly announced measures against SARS and, in a traditional manner, assured the population that “the situation is under control”. The early precaution measures essentially boiled down to compulsory screening of passengers arriving from China and other South-East Asia countries for the SARS virus. Very soon, it became apparent that these procedures were by far inadequate to cope with the interminable arrivals and departures. As the most decisive step, the government had to close the border until May 20, suspending all air, rail and motorway traffic.

Additionally, all Kazakhstani nationals residing in China were recalled. As of May 16, official sources say, 87 people returned from China. Most of them are high school students studying at the Universities of Shanghai, Beijing and Tsynyang. Five students, it was said, have remained in China of their own free will to continue their studies. It is believed that there are still some business people from Kazakhstan in the affected areas of China. But nobody knows the exact number of these people, since not all of them are registered with the Kazakhstani Embassy.

Before the closure of the border the trade was thriving in neighboring areas. Thousands of traders freely traveled daily across the border, using five border crossing points. The markets of Almaty and other Southern cities are awash with dirt-cheap Chinese clothing, toys, household goods and trinkets of all imaginable sorts. Chinese goods are widely believed to be of low quality. A Chinese shoe is never expected to last for more than a month without its sole falling off. The only temptation for residents of South Kazakhstan to buy them is their low price.

Kazakhstan has not yet invented any reliable means of reducing of influx of Chinese goods. The closure of the border has brought only a temporary solace to local manufacturers and food producers. “We welcome the steps of the government. It is high time to seal off the border. That is the only way to block the imports of Chinese rice” says Marat Dadikbay, the executive director of the Kazakh Rice Association.

But there are dissenting voices among business people. They think that the government has over-reacted to SARS epidemic in other countries and this is likely to harm business relations. It is yet to be estimated how much businesses in Kazakhstan will lose from the border closure. Some experts speak of millions of dollars, and that is not the worst forecast.

A few weeks before the border closure, officials of Kazakhstan had encouraging talks with the Secretary General of the World Tourism Organization. There is a real opportunity, with the help from this organization, to revive the declining tourist industry of Kazakhstan. The main tourist attractions are located in the South, near the Chinese border. And that will present a delicate problem, at least for some time. The SARS fear will have negative impacts on maritime trade, too. The administration of the Aktau seaport had to postpone its important exhibition in China scheduled for May.

Meanwhile, some officials in the government openly question the effectiveness of precaution measures taken to ward off the SARS epidemic. They argue that precaution rules are not strictly observed and many traders still use byroads to smuggle in infected goods. It is particularly difficult to control the travel routes of the Chinese workers of the “CNPC-Aktobemunaigaz” joint venture drilling for oil in Aktobe region. Hospitals and research institutions have no adequate equipment to carry out proper laboratory tests or even the needed quantity of protection masks. The best the medical workers can do is to place suspected persons in quarantine and isolation. Kazakhstan was not prepared to see SARS at its doorstep. It is only luck, that has prevented the deadly disease from spreading to Kazakhstan so far.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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