Wednesday, 27 August 2003

OPPOSITION STEPS UF STRUGGLE IN AZERBAIJAN

Published in Field Reports

By Gulnara Ismailova (8/27/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

However, the opposition is trying to activate its election campaign. In the Baku press club, a large meeting was held with the participation of the movement of intellectuals \"Amal\", leaders of political parties, NGOs and mass media. At this meeting, a wide social movement for the protection of democracy (MPD) was created.
However, the opposition is trying to activate its election campaign. In the Baku press club, a large meeting was held with the participation of the movement of intellectuals \"Amal\", leaders of political parties, NGOs and mass media. At this meeting, a wide social movement for the protection of democracy (MPD) was created. Its basic purpose is the mobilization of NGOs, political parties, mass media and citizens in order to prevent attempts of destabilization of a situation in the country.

A working body of the MPD will establish a continuous communication with power structures aiming to coordinate activity on the maintenance of stability and assisting the power structures in providing order. A concern was expressed at the meeting that tensions were increasing in Azerbaijan and would build up until the elections.

Other politicians, such as the chairman of the “Umid” party, MP Igbal Agazade, offered to hold an All-opposition forum. Agazade emphasized that under current conditions, the holding of presidential elections in October is in doubt. For this reason, the opposition should hold a forum and clearly state their sense of responsibility for the situation in the country.

The Organization of Karabakh’s Liberation (OKL) has made the same demand to the oppositions. “There are opinions that the situation will get out of control and that the tensions between various groupings will increase. The struggle for power is at risk of spiraling out of control”, a statement from OKL noted. According to the group, the opposition should take responsibility for a situation in the country. It suggested to create a new structure on the basis of the Coordination center of opposition (CCO). “Representatives of political parties, public organizations and mass media can take part in its work. This body’s duty should be not to allow the country to gravitate towards a civil war”.

A large meeting of representatives of opposition parties, human rights organizations and trade unions was also held recently, The Secretary general of the Democratic Party Serdar Jalaloglu declared that forces saw the appointment of Ilham Aliyev as a step towards the falsification of the forthcoming presidential elections, and a severe violation of the Constitution. Participants of the meeting have shown great discontent with the position of Turkey, the U.S. and Great Britain. But this time, the opposition is not going to stick only to statements. It is going to act, i.e. hold a series of protest actions, even against the western powers, which it always considered as advocates of democracy in Azerbaijan.

On August 9, the opposition held a mass meeting with the requirement to carry out free elections with equal opportunities and conditions for all candidates. The CCO echoed this demand. Columns of demonstrators in central Baku demanded the democratization of the Election code; the carrying out of free and fair presidential elections; to provide equal opportunities and conditions for all candidates, etc.

However, under present conditions, the opposition has no any administrative levers of influence on the situation. Its financial opportunities are limited. It has several candidates for the presidency, but the forces of opposition are still neither united nor consolidated.

In an ideal situation, the opposition could expect for support in the dissatisfied portion of society, potentially making up the majority of voters, as well as support from international organizations and leading western countries interested in the development of democracy in Azerbaijan. However without a single candidate, the opposition is clearly unable to win.

The dissatisfied electorate does not believe in a victory of isolated opposition candidates in the presidential elections. Moreover, it has become clear that major forces in the West consider that even in case of an opposition victory in the elections, the winning candidate is likely to fail to provide stability in the country.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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