Despite some pessimistic moods in the society, rooted in the growing sense of instability in the inflammable region, Kazakhstan is still believed to be the most secure place in Central Asia. The government keeps close watch over the activities of various sects. Another important factor, which contributes to security of the country from religious extremism, some experts believe, is the ongoing economic growth of the country. Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian country recognized as a market economy by the United States, a fact proudly reiterated by government officials.

But, however important, the economic factor should not be overestimated, warn more cautious analysts. Speaking at the international conference on security in Central Asia, held under the aegis of the Kazakh Institute for Strategic Research (KISR), the Center of Internal Policy and Analysis and UNESCO representatives, the deputy director of the KISR Askar Shomanov singled out terrorism and religious extremism as the main threat impending the security of the region.

In itself, that statement contains nothing new to those who follow the latest developments in the south of Kazakhstan. In August, security forces reported a successful crackdown on Islamic extremist groups in Shymkent. A spacious apartment room, rented by the followers of this sect, virtually served as an underground printing house, which churned out dozens of copies of extremist leaflets. Nobody could tell how many of them had been distributed. All the equipment was seized by the police.

It should be admitted that such half-measures do not discourage Islamic extremists at all. Beaten in one region, they invariably resurface in another. In mid-November, not long after the detention of Islamists in Shymkent, a missionary of the Hizb-ut-Tahrir movement was detained in the city of Baikonur, at the heart of the spacecraft launching site. It is not at all a surprise that he appeared in such a heavily guarded place. Some sources say that Islamic extremists even have connections with local government officials in South Kazakhstan. Taking into consideration the huge financial resources possessed by extremist organizations that allow them to own modern printing equipment and move freely across the country one cannot rule out the possibility of corrupt government officials rendering illegal support to Islamists.

The Hizb-ut-Tahrir member detained in Baikonur confessed to the police that his intention was to reestablish the banned local organization of the religious movement in the city. The final aim of the organization, as he indicated, was to create an Islamic state, a Caliphate, in south Kazakhstan and to unleash a holy war against “infidels”.

Notably, most of the adepts of the Hizb-ut-Tahrir teachings are young people. That leads some observers to conclude that the higher rate of youth unemployment in South Kazakhstan favors the recruitment of teenagers for the religious movement. Another obvious explanation is that the southern part of the country is mainly Muslim-populated. But in the light of recent developments, all that can be only partly true. In fact, the influence of the Hizb-ut-Tahrir is not strictly limited to the South. They are slowly but firmly moving to the North, closer to the Russian border. Not long ago two young members of Hizb-ut-Tahrir appeared in Pavlodar and Ekibastuz, industrially developed and socially well-faring regions. “Why are Americans stationed in Uzbekistan?’ ran headlines of the leaflets in Kazakh language seized from the militants. Mistakes abound in these anti-American texts to such an extent that experts believe they are written not by home-grown Islamists but by foreigners.

Before that incident, Pavlodar, a cosmopolitan city where a newly built synagogue, a Russian Orthodox Church and a Mosque symbolize spiritual harmony, was considered to be quite unassailable for extremists. Today only few people harbor that illusion, although authorities are overcautious not to spread panic among the residents. Densely populated industrial centers, according to the experts of the Risk Assessment Group, may become the scene of extremist advances. Polls conducted among the residents of Almaty showed that 35% of them fear urban terrorism within the next 5 years.

True, there are not so many people in Kazakhstan who readily embrace the bellicose ideas of religious extremist organizations. To all appearances, militant Islamists understand that and prefer to lie low for some time, limiting their activities to propaganda. It is not to be overlooked, however, that under the guise of reviving the lost spiritual values, extremist forces are winning minds and souls of young people.